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Taliban 2.0 – Moderate Or Still Hardliners An Economic Imperative

The Taliban regained the power in Afghanistan after twenty years it was removed from power in a US-led military invasion. Taliban have inherited a vibrant Afghanistan that seems to be difficult to run for them, because they don't have the experience or knowledge of running a vibrant and strong Afghanistan.

The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan without any agreement or peace talks with the Afghan government resulted in Taliban taking over the country completely. This offered Taliban an opportunity to run the country per their wish or most probably rule Afghanistan again under a setup they had in their first time of governing Afghanistan in the 90s. However, Taliban have a different generation to deal with and govern. It is not the same generation of the Afghans that Taliban ruled twenty years back. So, it's a very challenging situation for Taliban to be the governing body and to address the needs of the public. Fighting and destruction is very easy, but how to rebuild Afghanistan would be a real challenge. If you don't have experience in running a government, you are destined to fail.

The immediate requirement for the Taliban Government is to raise finances to run the government. While some humanitarian aid might come to prevent hunger, running the government would require steady financial support from friendly neighbors, importantly Russia and China.

The only leverage Taliban have against China is a promise that they will not let Uighur militants go to China. It's only a promise, not action. So far, we have not seen these words change into action, or there hasn't been time to test the theory of Taliban's capacity, that they will not allow other militants to wage attacks on other countries.

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Russia is trying to be very close to Taliban and to work with them to avoid any spillover of the potential terrorist threat from Afghanistan to central Asia, and eventually to Russia. The second reason is the common enemy they both have, the United States. And the third one is the narcotics that goes into Russia. Taliban had full control of the narcotics, Russians believed if Taliban are in power, they can control the flow of narcotics or drugs into Russia. So in that manner the only leverage that Taliban have with respect to Russia is their promise of controlling narcotics.

Terrorism and control of some of the legitimate economic sources were a couple of factors into Taliban’s coming back to power. But the real reason was the actual support, safe havens, military support, military advice, and medical assistance to the Taliban forces in the last 20 years from within Pakistan. It is a well-known fact that Pakistan has played a crucial role in Taliban resurgence. In the last 20 years, Pakistan hosted Taliban leaders, fighters and provided them with complete support to sustain an insurgency in Afghanistan. It made them very dependent on Pakistan. It will be a challenge for Taliban to let that dependence go off or manage a more independent relationship.

Taliban is projecting a more rational face that experts believe that could lead to an ideological blow back to Taliban with the extremist elements going their way, as it always happens in Jihadi groups. One of the main worries not only with Jihadi groups, but also with any revolutionary group is when they gained power by force, they tend not to flexibility about their values and beliefs their fighters fought for. And if their leadership shows openness, they can face strongs resistance from their fighters to losing their hard-won gains. Last month during discussions about inclusivity in the government, Khalil Haqqani and Mulla Baradar who is considered to be more moderate, exchanged blows and Mulla Baradar being punched reportedly and he went to Kandahar after that. So, one could see the level of intolerance by many hardliners who are not willing to give up their hard-line stance.

Sher Jan Ahmadzai, Director of the Center for Afghanistan Studies, University of Nebraska at Omaha

Sher Jan Ahmadzai serves as Director of the Center for Afghanistan Studies at the University of Nebraska at Omaha. Mr. Ahmadzai is currently working on chapters for a book regarding Water resources in Afghanistan and trans-boundary water issues between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

He has served at various positions at the Office of the President of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. Prior to leaving Afghanistan, he served as Director Presidential Schedule at the Office of the President of Afghanistan responsible for managing President Karzai’s day to day schedule. During his at the palace, he was able to foster and maintain professional relations with government, community and political leaders across Afghanistan.

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