What The 8 Billion Population Milestone Means For The Future

Thursday, 26 January 2023, 11:40 am
Article: Hugh Grant

On November 15, 2022, the Earth hit the population milestone of 8 billion people. Looking at how our population is spread around the world and what’s growing can help us understand what is to come for the future. Oceania, with 311 million people, is the smallest region and Asia, with over 4.5 billion, is the largest. The world’s population as a whole is growing at 0.83% per year but some countries are growing at different faster or slower rates, with some even losing population. You’d be led to believe that Asia, with the largest population, would be growing the fastest, but looking at the data shows that isn’t the case. Countries in Africa, especially those south of the Sahara Desert such as Nigeria and Ethiopia, don’t have the largest populations in the world but are growing at an unmatched rate.

With only 1.26 billion inhabitants, growing at the pace it is at puts it ahead of any other continent. Nigeria is growing the fastest in the world at 2.4% per year and has the highest fertility rate, with an average of 5.14 kids per couple. While the US has a higher immigration rate than anywhere else in the world contributing to its growth, these sub-Saharan countries are still far outpacing the US. Many countries in Europe, such as Spain, Italy, and Iceland, as well as a number of other countries, such as Japan, have low fertility rates and with some of these countries even having negative growth.

The reason for varying rates of growth around the world is highly dependent on how developed and especially how healthy a country is. As life expectancy increases in a country, it is very common for the fertility rate to decrease as that population continues to age without having children. Having a primarily older population can be harmful for a country, as more resources are needed for their care as well as those elderly no longer being in the workforce.

Countries in Europe have the highest life expectancy as many European countries are rated the highest on the Health Index Score and have life expectancies above 80 years. Conversely, countries that are still being developed in Africa are rated the lowest on the Health Index Score and only have life expectancies of 45 to 50 years. While this is significantly younger than other parts of the world, the world has still come a long way in relatively recent times; global life expectancy was only 29 years in 1800, compared to the 73 years today.

A healthier, yet aging population means a number of things for economies around the world. Dr. Liz Allen, an ANU researcher and demographer, said “Population growth or decline aren’t in and of themselves bad things. The key issue is how a population is functioning, and this often gets boiled down to the proportion of the population which is of working-age.” An older population may lead to potential labor shortages. By 2030, surpluses are set to become shortfalls, risking over $10 trillion.

As the demand for care for the elderly goes up as more start to age, a few industries are set to boom, but others will have to bear the weight of lost workers. However, the growth in sub-Saharan Africa is seeing much higher effective labor growth rates that are soon to outpace Europe and the Americas in the next few years. This means more money is going to these countries to further develop them and increase their standard of living.

Learn more about how sub-Saharan Africa will soon become one of the most important places on Earth and what the road to 9 billion people will come about.

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