Zero-Sum Fiscal Narratives

Thursday, 22 May 2025, 11:34 am
Opinion: Keith Rankin

The central narrative of New Zealand's Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, is 'There is only so much money to go around'. (For example, her interview on RNZ on 20 May, Willis on her second Budget, price of butter. The interview also covers, in the usual subservient way our media addresses these issues, Willis's diversionary narrative to scapegoat supermarkets.)

A false zero-sum narrative

This zero-sum narrative about money is virtually uncontested, certainly in the mainstream media. Yet it's not only sub-standard economics, it is also sub-standard theology. It is appropriate to debate whether God-made-Man or Man-made-God; there should be no such contest about Money-made-Man versus Man-made-Money.

Money is not (or should not be) God. The one fundamental truth about money, is that it is a human creation; Man made money. Money is a social technology, not a fundamental poverty-imposing constraint. In modern capitalism, central banks supervise the money supply, and can create money at will. The creation of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in 1934 was a critical component of the post-Depression recovery and expansion from 1935 to 1940.

In modern capitalism, central banks act as lenders of last resort and governments as borrowers (and insurers) of last resort. This process of central bank lending and government borrowing is the engine of global capitalism, just as the sun's energy is the engine that makes ongoing life on Earth possible.

Japan versus Germany

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It is instructive to compare the economic fortunes of Japan and Germany this century.

Japan developed the new macroeconomics during its 'horrible decade', the 1990s. Its economy has thrived since 2000. The basis of its success, in a country with a financially conservative middle class and low inequality, is to borrow from its large pool of savers, rather than to overtax them. Japan has a stable public debt, sitting at around 240% of GDP since before 2015. And it has a stable fiscal deficit of around 4% each year. It has had interest rates around zero for more than a decade; currently 0.5%. Inflation peaked at 4% in 2023 (in the context of a falling Yen), up from 1% in early 2022. Japan's current unemployment rate is 2.5%, having peaked at 3% in 2020.

Germany has taken the mercantilist line, which – in essence – posits money as God. It has imposed fiscal austerity on itself since 2010, and on the European Union which it then dominated. And it's now in a state of socio-economic crisis, with a similar economic growth profile to New Zealand. In its last election (in February), using MMP, only 45% of voters voted for the two major parties. In the more recent opinion polls that support has fallen to around 40%. In the former 'Communist' East Germany, support for the two major parties combined is under 25%.

Germany, like most countries in the west, has stubbornly refused to learn from Japan. Fiscal counternarratives are effectively suppressed.

Debt ceiling?

New Zealand, when Grant Robertson was Minister of Finance, decided to impose a de facto 'debt ceiling' of 50% of GDP. Nicola Willis – inspired by Ruth Richardson's (now entrenched) 1994 'Fiscal Responsibility Act' – is entrenching this 50% debt ceiling. Thankfully for our great-grandparents, Michael Joseph Savage (and his Finance Minister, Walter Nash) did not operate similar 'debt ceiling' policies.

A policy to cut-back on government spending also has the effect of cutting back government revenue. That's very basic Keynesian macroeconomics. If we buy less, we produce less, we earn less, and we pay less tax than we otherwise would. The combination of reduced government spending and reduced government revenue is anti-growth; pushed to its limits it represents a capitalist death spiral. The western world found a way out of such a spiral in the 1930s; before World War Two (WW2), but too late to prevent that war and the megadeath which came with it.

A true zero-sum identity

In a world in which the private sector – businesses and households – collectively chooses to run financial surpluses (choosing saving at debt repayment over borrowing), then governments must run deficits. When the world is divided into two sectors – private and public – the successful achievement of a surplus by one of those two sectors must be accompanied by a deficit in the other of those two sectors. In essence, governments can only – and have only – run surpluses or 'balanced Budgets' when businesses are running financial deficits. For the global economy as a whole, by definition there can be neither a financial surplus nor a deficit; financial balances add to zero, as an accounting identity.

Business sector deficits were substantially the norm in the twentieth century, but not since about 1990. Government balanced budgets were possible – though not normal – for much of the previous century. Japan met its new challenge in the 1990s, at a time when Japanese businesses were forced by their creditors to run substantial financial surpluses; substantial government deficits were a mathematically necessary part of the solution.

Inequality and increased private risk

The twenty-first century is characterised by high – and often-growing – levels of inequality in the western capitalist world. It is also characterised as a period of growing private risk, including the risk that even rich people (eg the 'ten-percenters') will struggle to afford life-saving medications for cancer and other ills. This twenty-first century private risk-profile means that the household component of the private sector is trying to run bigger surpluses. This is a kind of insurance situation; people feel they need ever bigger amounts of contingency savings to cover personal or familial 'rainy days'. Japanese people led the way in this respect, in the 1990s.

This drive for ever bigger private surpluses – which includes things like debt repayments and retirement savings – means that, for capitalism to survive, governments must run bigger deficits; indeed 'structural deficits', in the way that Japan does.

Government spending on big guns

In one sense the capitalist world – belatedly – is saving itself in this way through fiscal expansion; though only by trying to destroy itself in another way. Hitlernomics – a form of Keynesian economics – maintained de facto or de jure debt ceilings for civilian-oriented public spending, while allowing for virtual unlimited military spending on 'big guns'. Germany explicitly moved in this direction in March 2025, by using a voted-out 'lame duck' parliament to authorise the removal of the de jure debt limit on military spending (and limited 'infrastructure' spending).

Urgent need for contestable democratic counter-narratives

We urgently need a democratic counter-narrative, which promotes public debt at least as a stabilising force (and in some cases to take priority over private debt). And a complementary counter-narrative promoting public-equity over pay-equity as an efficient means to correct destabilising inequality, given that excessive inequality is also a deathknell of capitalism. Capitalism depends on selling wage-goods to wage-workers.

Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

Keith Rankin

Political Economist, Scoop Columnist

Keith Rankin taught economics at Unitec in Mt Albert since 1999. An economic historian by training, his research has included an analysis of labour supply in the Great Depression of the 1930s, and has included estimates of New Zealand's GNP going back to the 1850s.

Keith believes that many of the economic issues that beguile us cannot be understood by relying on the orthodox interpretations of our social science disciplines. Keith favours a critical approach that emphasises new perspectives rather than simply opposing those practices and policies that we don't like.

Keith retired in 2020 and lives with his family in Glen Eden, Auckland.