Top Scoops

Book Reviews | Gordon Campbell | Scoop News | Wellington Scoop | Community Scoop | Search

 

Scoop Analysis: Dissecting The National List

Where will the likely cut-off be on the National Party list following the November election?

Scoop has categorised National MPs into a series of groups which give an indication of how the process works. The exercise involves first figuring out who is likely to be elected in the electorate vote. Names are then taken from the list to make up the difference.

This is inevitably a very imprecise exercise and Scoop would be interested in the views of any political experts out there who have a different view on who should be in each category. Scoop apologises in advance if it has left somebody out who stands a good chance of winning in their electorate.

THE STARTING 26

Current MPs not on list but likely/possibly will win:

Murray McCully
Clem Simich
Ian Revell
Warren Kyd
Tony Steele
Murray McLean (Coromandle - marginal)

Below the likely cut- off but likely to be elected in their seats:

Wayne Mapp (No 33)
Brian Neeson (No 34)
Shane Ardern (No 35)
Gerry Brownlee (No 36)

New candidates who are likely to/possibly will win.

Port Waikato: Dr Paul Hutchison (No. 38)
Wairarapa: Paul Henry (No 43)
Epsom: Richard Worth (No 44)
Karapiro: Lindsay Tisch (Not on the list)

MPs above the likely cut-off who are likely to win their seats:

1. Prime Minster Jenny Shipley
4. Bill English
5. Lockwood Smith
8. Nick Smith
(Marginal) 9. Tony Ryall
10. Belinda Vernon
13. Maurice Williamson
(Marginal) 15. Max Bradford
16. John Carter
21. David Carter
(Marginal) 22. Bob Simcock
24. Marie Hasler

(Note: In the event any of these do not win their seats it makes no difference to the cut-off line as they would be appointed off the list in any event.)

THE REST - LIKELY NATIONAL LIST MPS

Assuming National gets the same as it did last time - 33% of the vote and 44 seats - then the cut-off would according to Scoop's guesstimate occur at No 29 on the list. Scoop is assuming here that Don McKinnon will be appointed as Secretary General to the Commonwealth and that therefore he will not take up a place off the list.

2. Deputy Prime Minister Wyatt Creech
6. Georgina Te Heuheu
7. Roger Sowry
8. Nick Smith
11. Pansy Wong
12. Simon Upton
14. John Luxton
17. Doug Kidd
18. Annabel Young
19. Eric Roy
20. Anne Tolley
23. Katherine Rich
25. Arthur Anae
26. Alec Neill
27. Katherine O'regan
28. Mark Thomas
29. Phil Raffills

--- Scoop's guesstimate of where cut-off line will be with National on 33% of party vote ----

IN WITH A CHANCE

30. Kerry Prendergast
31. Martin Poulsen
32. Gavan Herlihy
37. Simon Power
39. David Steele
40. Dale Stephens
41. Angus Mckay
42. Phil Heatley
45. Chester Borrows

PROBABLY OUT OF THE RUNNING

46. Cni George Ngatai
47. N Enosa Auva'a
48. Cni Rea Wikaira
49. N Brett Bestic
50. C/W Rod O'beirne
51. S Wayne Marriot
52. W Stephen Rainbow

(Note: At this point National would have an outright majority in Parliament with 60 MPs)

53. Cni Tim Macindoe
54. N George Kahi
55. W Larry White
56. N Ken Yee
57. C/W Lynda Scott
58. Cni Matthew Parkinson
59. N Dawn Honeybun
60. W George Halligan
61. N Grant Mccallum
62. C/W Peggy Burrows
63. N Toni Millar
64. N Noeline Buckland
65. W Stuart Boag

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Top Scoops Headlines

 

Reese Erlich: Foreign Correspondent: Trump Plays Both Sides Against The Middle

Is he a hawk? Is he a peacenik? The President keeps us guessing . By Reese Erlich President Donald Trump has convinced Republican isolationists and hawks that he supports their views. That’s a neat trick, since the two groups hold opposing positions. ... More>>

Binoy Kampmark: Waiting For The Old Bailey: Julian Assange And Britain’s Judicial Establishment

On September 7, Julian Assange will be facing another round of gruelling extradition proceedings, in the Old Bailey, part of a process that has become a form of gradual state-sanctioned torture. The US Department of Justice hungers for their man. The More>>



Gordon Campbell: On The Sorry Plight Of The International Education Sector

Tourism and international education have been two of the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic. They’re both key export industries. Yet the government response to them has been strikingly different. There has been nothing beyond a few words of ministerial condolence and a $51.6 million package (details below) to get the sector through the pandemic...
More>>

Binoy Kampmark: Google’s Open Letter: Fighting Australia’s News Media Bargaining Code

Tech giants tend to cast thin veils over threats regarding government regulations. They are also particularly concerned by those more public spirited ones, the sort supposedly made for the broader interest. Google has given us an example of this ... More>>


Gordon Campbell: On Trump’s Current Chances Of Re-Election

By now it seems clear that National have no fresh ideas to offer for how New Zealand could avoid the Covid-19 economic crisis. As in the past, National has set an arbitrary 30% ratio of government debt to GDP that it aims to achieve “in a decade or so,” ... More>>

The Conversation: Rogue Poll Or Not, All The Signs Point To A Tectonic Shift In New Zealand Politics

Richard Shaw AAP(various)/NZ Greens (CC-BY-SA)/The Conversation Strong team. More jobs. Better economy. So say the National Party’s campaign hoardings. Only thing is, last Sunday’s Newshub-Reid Research poll – which had support for the Labour ... More>>

The Coronavirus Republic: Three Million Infections And Rising

The United States is famed for doing things, not to scale, but off it. Size is the be-all and end-all, and the coronavirus is now doing its bit to assure that the country remains unrivalled in the charts of infection . In time, other unfortunates may well ... More>>

Binoy Kampmark: Altars Of Hypocrisy: George Floyd, Protest And Black Face

Be wary what you protest about. The modern moral constabulary are out, and they are assisted by their Silicon Valley friends in the Social Media club. Should you dare take a stand on anything, especially in a dramatic way, you will be found out ... More>>