Gordon Campbell | Parliament TV | Parliament Today | Video | Questions Of the Day | Search


A Focus on New Plymouth

Wellington – National’s probability of holding New Plymouth – one of the most marginal seats in the country – has been increasing steadily recently.

National's Jonathan Young took the New Plymouth seat off Labour MP Harry Duynhoven with a majority of 105 votes in 2008.

The then ACT candidate, Chris Albers, secured 455 votes in the election.
Former Labour Party President and EPMU boss Andrew Little is contesting the seat for Labour and a victory would do no harm to the political prospects of a man many consider to be a future leader of the party.

Little faces an uphill task though. He only recently began campaigning full time in the seat and it seems he has to convince a large number of National voters to give him their electorate vote.

This is because while the electorate race in New Plymouth was close last time, the party vote count was not.

National picked up 17,512 party votes in New Plymouth compared to Labour’s 10,901.

This would indicate a large number of those who gave their party vote to National also gave their electorate vote to Duynhoven.

To win Little has to convince a similar number to repeat their behaviour.
There are two Labour related stock on the seat.

Andrew Little to win New Plymouth slowly declined between July 25 and August 3 from 32 percent to 24 percent but today climbed back up closer to the 30 percent mark.

This is out of kilter with the Labour to win stock, which has fallen from 34 percent probability recently to around 22 percent.

National to win has recently moved from around a 60 percent probability to 72 percent.

ACT has already confirmed it will not be standing a candidate in the seat.

At the time The Taranaki Daily News reported that Little was crying foul over the "stitch-up" between National and ACT.

The iPredict market was earlier in the year picking a closely run race between Young and Little until rumours emerged last month of polls in the seat putting Young well ahead of Little.

© Scoop Media

Parliament Headlines | Politics Headlines | Regional Headlines

Gordon Campbell: On National’s Rampant Pandering To The Farming Vote

What on earth has happened to the political parties n the centre-right? Once upon a time in the US, the party of Lincoln was a respectable political party before it devolved into the cult of Trump. Here at home, the National Parry used to be able to manage and administer the economic orthodoxy in a reasonably competent fashion. Now it can barely do simple addition and subtraction. Something must have gotten into the water, and not simply out on the farm... More>>


Winston Peters Speech: The Gathering Storm Clouds: Ihumatao

Frequently around New Zealand you hear people say that politicians are all the same. It’s a convenient way to dismiss any careful investigation of the truth of that statement. New Zealand First since its inception has been committed to ‘one law ... More>>


National Agriculture Policy: Will Restore Farmer Confidence And Pride

A National Government will reduce regulatory burden and give farmers confidence for the future. Leader of the National Party Judith Collins and Agriculture spokesperson David Bennett announced National’s Agriculture policy in Gisborne today. “Agriculture ... More>>


Shaw: Wealth Tax Not A Bottom Line For Green Party But They Will Push For It

Green Party co-leader James Shaw says one of his senior MPs misspoke under pressure when she said a wealth tax was one of the party's bottom lines. More>>


Government: More Border Exceptions For Critical Roles

The Government has established class exceptions for border entry for a limited number of veterinarians, deep sea fishing crew, as well as agricultural and horticultural machinery operators. “Tight border restrictions remain the backbone of the Government’s ... More>>


Gordon Campbell: On Last Night’s Leaders Debate

Do political debates change voter intentions, and cause voters to switch sides? According to a 2019 Harvard Business School study conducted across 61 elections in nine countries involving 172,000 respondents, the answer would seem to be a resounding ... More>>


Dunne Speaks: The Election Campaign Just Grinds Slowly On And On

With just over three weeks until the General Election, the release of the first major pre-election opinion poll this week confirmed what was already being reported about this year’s campaign. Although the gap between Labour and National has narrowed ... More>>

Electoral Commission: Candidate And Party Lists Released

17 registered political parties and 677 candidates will be contesting the 2020 General Election Nominations have now closed and the Electoral Commission has released the electorate and party list candidates for 2020 online at . Advance voting ... More>>

National: Plan To Restore NZ’s Prosperity

National’s Economic and Fiscal Plan carefully balances the need to invest in infrastructure and core public services while also reducing tax pressure on Kiwi families and businesses. National Leader Judith Collins and Finance spokesperson Paul Goldsmith unveiled National’s ... More>>


NZ First: Party List

New Zealand First has a proven twenty-seven-year history of bringing balance and common sense to our government. Amid the continued setbacks of COVID-19 restrictions, New Zealand First has once again sustained its profile by selecting a strong team ... More>>





InfoPages News Channels