There is a strong and growing trend among incumbent parties in power to draw political and social conclusions from spreadsheet data rather than direct research from front-line gathered statistics. This can cause a substantive disconnect between government policies and the experiences of businesses and constituents.

This pattern emerged during National’s last tenure, where many of its leadership fixated on spreadsheet data to match political intent, rather than have accurate data reflected directly from the sources.

It is critical that leadership gather data from front-line sources to determine actual real-world statistics, such as Corrections data, health practitioner data, and data gathered by NGOs, such as the Salvation Army or Red Cross.

Research indicates that nearly all of the recent incumbent government leaders developed a substantive disconnect between real world events transpiring and impacting society and the high level, over simplified data directed at party leadership.

This trend continues, as is indicative by the Prime Minister’s own rhetoric. Trend analysis reveals a marked disconnect between the events impacting large portions of the populace and the leadership perspective that denies these events are impactful.

One example is the crime rate and the consistent rhetoric by government leaders noting that “youth crime rates are declining” and that “overall crime is not seeing any increases.”

These conclusionary remarks made by leadership are indicative of expansive disconnect between the consistently growing pattern of organised crime syndicates in New Zealand and utilising youth. Moreover, it appears to also attempt to discredit business owners and insurance companies that are paying the brunt of costs associated not only with increased inner-city criminality but also the social impact of increased victimisation.

From the New Zealand crime statistics, crime victim rates hit a high of approximately 30,000 in the month of May, where the report and statistics were gathered. This substantive victim numeric has both social and economic impact that no government high level statistics correlate.

The cost associated with hospitalisation, mental health and social support as well as lost productivity are not gathered or supplied to leadership. It is for this reason that Trend Analysis Network identified in an earlier release that government leaders continue to attempt to save money utilising early release programmes, which can often have far higher costs associated to the victims.

Moreover, the costs and impact associated with the same criminals being repeatedly arrested and then returned back into the criminal justice system are also not integrated in the high-level statistics used by leaders to make decisions.

Finally, business impact including lost revenue, increased insurance premiums and other associated operating expenses in higher crime areas can have a substantial negative impact on the communities these businesses serve.

The trend for incumbent government parties to disconnect and create policies that fail to address real-world problems increases by a margin, each additional year they retain power. This trend then exacerbates the results of social and economic degradation, not due to the failed or incongruent policies enacted but by the actual statistics that impact the voting constituency.

If the existing Labour leadership continues on the developing trend, by the election season 2023 trend analysis expects higher crime victimisation rates, degradation of the economic forecasts and a disproportionate probability of a change in government.

Trend Analysis Network is a think tank based in New Zealand created to identify and publish analytical results of future trends in politics, society, and economics.

Other recent releases:

Trend Analysis: Potential for Major Economic Upheaval Before 2023

Trend Analysis: Government Erroneous Interventions Into Banking Law

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