Cablegate: Daily Summary of Japanese Press 09/11/06

DE RUEHKO #5209/01 2540849
P 110849Z SEP 06





E.O. 12958: N/A

(1) Editorial: Proliferation of dangers continues five years after
9/11 attacks with declining US power

(2) Poll on political parties, LDP presidential election

(3) Tanigaki's strong performance may give life to anti-Abe forces;
Aso's good fight may result in integration into Abe

(4) Editorial: Abe must not throw away Murayama statement

(5) Possibility surfacing of secretary Iijima staying on in Abe

(6) METI's Ishiguro may be appointed administrative secretary

(7) War of nerves to contain BSE five years after discovery of first
infection case; Survey found two infection peaks: Is the second peak
the last?

(8) "Ozawa vision" aims at winning over conservative vote; Minshuto
putting up front the issue of correcting social disparity

(1) Editorial: Proliferation of dangers continues five years after
9/11 attacks with declining US power

NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Abridged)
September 10, 2006

Five years have passed since the terrorist attacks on the United
States on Sept. 11, 2001. The impact of the attacks was tremendous.
The US afterward led the war on terror, which brought about great
changes in the international environment.

From cooperation to disagreement

Immediately after the attacks, President Bush professed, "This is
war." He later ordered strikes against Afghanistan, a country that
was then under the rule of the Islamic fundamentalist group Taliban,
which had links to Al Qaeda and where that terrorist organization
had bases. The war on terror was aimed at ending the Taliban's rule
of Afghanistan and was supported by European countries, China, and
Russia. At the time, all major countries across the world shared the
same crisis awareness brought about by the 9/11 attacks and acted
together with the US.

But the Iraq war that the US commenced in March 2003 shifted the
trend of international cooperation that had continued since the 9/11
attacks owing to international disagreement and division. Britain
took part in the war, but Germany, France, certain other European
countries, China, Russia, and Arab countries were strongly opposed
to the war. In concert with the launching of the Iraq war, the Bush
administration worked out a concept for promoting democracy in the
Middle East. This move, however, was met by objections or a sense of
wariness in the international community. Critics felt that promoting
democracy there would be no more than forcing ideas on people
without paying attention to the realities they were facing.

Weapons of mass destruction were cited as the cause for the Iraq
war, but no material evidence was ever discovered, and the local
security situation in Iraq has only continued to worsen, with the
number of US soldiers killed continuing to rise. Approval ratings

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for President Bush in the US have been dropping sharply, and the
American public is becoming more inward-looking. The US has found
difficult even to partially pull its troops out of Iraq, resulting
in restricting is military deployment capabilities elsewhere in the

Consequently, America's diplomatic power across the board and its
global leadership have markedly declined. As a result, the unipolar
world led by the US as only superpower has started to collapse, and
there is no prospect in sight for anything to avoid that situation.
With the emergence of a power vacuum, narrow national interests are
beginning to erupt all over the world. One example is Iran's nuclear
weapons program

Since the start of its second term, the Bush administration seems to
have discarded arguments favoring preemptive action or
democratization theory advocated by neo-conservatives and instead
began to attach more importance to pragmatic diplomacy led by the
State Department. But President Bush still associates himself solely
with a dualist theory: dividing countries into terrorist states and
democratic nations, or thinking only whether a country sides with
the US or not. Recently, he has begun to describe Islamic radicals
as "waging a totalitarian war."

Terrorist acts are heinous crimes. The fault lies solely on the side
that carried out the terrorism. Yet, we nonetheless believe it
necessary to stress that many on this planet cannot accept America's
moralistic black and white responses made since the 9/11 incident,
as well as America's foreign policy that is overly protective of

Prevention of breeding of future terrorists

In the war on terror, most Al Qaeda bases were destroyed by military
power. But the ideas of Al Qaeda have since turned into an ideology
that has permeated across the world, and Islamic radicals'
international network has spread to Europe and Asia through cyber
space on the Internet. Their cause has been helped by the spread of
mass media reporting on the situation of the Palestinian people.
Thanks to video footages, many Muslims can easily share an awareness
that they are the victims of the present international order.

The bomb attacks on the London underground in July 2005 and the
disclosure of the attempted simultaneous bombing of passenger planes
in August 2006 revealed that young Pakistanis born and raised in
Britain had picked up radical thoughts before anyone noticed and
turned into suicide terrorists.

Most Muslims on the globe reject terrorism and hope to live safely.
How best to cut the vicious cycle of producing future terrorists
from among those Muslims? Hard power -- military strength -- and
security measures are not sufficient to achieve the goal of the war
on terrorism. A wise response is expected from not only the US but
also the rest of the world, including education that explains the
importance of well-balanced diplomacy and co-existence with peoples
with different cultures.

(2) Poll on political parties, LDP presidential election

ASAHI (Page 3) (Full)
September 10, 2006

Questions & Answers

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(Figures shown in percentage, rounded off.)

Q: Which political party do you support now? (Parentheses denote the
results of a survey conducted Aug. 26-27.)

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 40(38)
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 14(13)
New Komeito (NK) 3(3)
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 1(3)
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 2(2)
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0(0)
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0(0)
Liberal League (LL or Jiyu Rengo) 0(0)
Other political parties 1(0)
None 36(37)
No answer (N/A) + don't know (D/K) 3(4)

Q: Are you interested in the upcoming LDP presidential election?
(Parentheses denote the results of a survey conducted Jan. 28-29.)

Yes 63(71)
No 35(26)

Q: Mr. Shinzo Abe, Mr. Sadakazu Tanigaki, and Mr. Taro Aso have
announced their candidacies for the LDP presidential election. Who
do you think is appropriate to become the next prime minister? (One
choice only)

Shinzo Abe 54
Sadakazu Tanigaki 11
Taro Aso 10

Q: Do you expect policy debates in the LDP presidential election
this time? (Parentheses denote the results of a survey conducted
Aug. 21-22.)

Yes 26(24)
No 58(60)

Q: What would you like the next prime minister to pursue first? (One
choice only)

Pension, welfare reforms 48
Social divide correction 10
Local revitalization 9
Fiscal reconstruction 17
Constitutional reform 2
Asia diplomacy correction 9

Q: Mr. Abe is reportedly gathering public support as a candidate to
become the next prime minister. What do you think is the primary
reason for his nationwide popularity? (One choice only)

Policy, opinion 5
Action 10
Youthfulness 11
Personal character, image 44
There's no other appropriate person 25

Q: Mr. Abe has made public his manifesto titled "Japan the
Beautiful." Do you know his political pledges? (One choice only)

Know about his pledges 11

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Know he has made it public 61
Don't know about his pledges 27

Q: Would you like the current LDP-led coalition government to stay
on, or would you otherwise like it to be replaced with a DSP-led
coalition? (Parentheses denote the results of a survey conducted
Aug. 21-22.)

LDP-led coalition 44(38)
DSP-led coalition 34(29)

Polling methodology: The survey was conducted Sept. 8-9 across the
nation over the telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing
(RDD) basis. Respondents were chosen from among the nation's voting
population on a three-stage random-sampling basis. Valid answers
were obtained from 1,055 persons (60 percent).

(3) Tanigaki's strong performance may give life to anti-Abe forces;
Aso's good fight may result in integration into Abe

MAINICHI (Page 5) (Excerpts)
September 9, 2006

Supported widely by LDP lawmakers, Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo
Abe holds a commanding lead over Foreign Minister Taro Aso and
Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki in the ongoing LDP presidential
race. Which of the two - Aso or Tanigaki - will come second after
Abe is also a focus of attention, as it may affect Abe's management
of his administration. If Tanigaki garners a large number of votes,
anti-Abe forces might come back to life, and if Aso comes in second,
his policies might be integrated into Abe's.

(4) Editorial: Abe must not throw away Murayama statement

ASAHI (Page 3) (Full)
September 8, 2006

In 1995, on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the war's end,
then Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama stated:

"During a certain period in the not too distant past, Japan,
following a mistaken national policy and through its colonial rule
and aggression, caused tremendous damage and suffering to the
peoples of Asian nations. Based on a spirit of humanity, I regard
these as irrefutable facts of history, and express here once again
my feelings of deep remorse and state my heartfelt apology."

The statement reflected Murayama's earnest desire to dissolve
neighboring countries' ill feelings left behind by the last major
war as a person serving as the prime minister in a milestone year.

Since then, this has taken root at home and abroad as the Japanese
government's view of history. The statement clearly spoke of Japan's
view and has played an important role in winning trust of
neighboring countries.

But Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, who is quite certain to
become the next prime minister, does not seem to like this

Abe has repeatedly been asked in a press interview and press
conferences ahead of the LDP presidential election if he would
follow the Murayama statement once he became prime minister. But his

TOKYO 00005209 005 OF 008

answers were always elusive.

Asked for his view on colonial rule and aggression, mentioned in the
Murayama statement, Abe simply said, "The matter should be left to

Abe has been involved with a group of lawmakers critical of
"masochistic historical views." He might just want to avoid
recognizing Japan's past acts as aggression and making apologies. He
also abstained from a vote on the Diet resolution commemorating the
50th anniversary of the war's end.

Most people, including many historians, regard the war in China and
Southeast Asia as an act of aggression. All Japanese prime ministers
since Yasuhiro Nakasone officially recognized it as aggression.

Though the statement bears the name of Prime Minister Murayama, who
hailed from the Japan Socialist Party, it reflected the Japanese
government's official view. In fact, it was the coalition cabinet
composed of the Liberal Democratic Party, the Social Democratic
Party of Japan, and Sakigake (Harbinger) that adopted the Murayama

Since then, the Japanese government has used it as a guideline in
showing its historical views. It served as the foundation for the
Japan-South Korea Joint Declaration, issued in 1998 by then Prime
Minister Keizo Obuchi and South Korean President Kim Dae Jung. Japan
also released the Japan-China Joint Declaration with Chinese
President Jiang Zemin pledging to abide by the Murayama statement.

Prime Minister Koizumi has followed the statement on a variety of
occasions, including the Japan-DPRK Pyongyang Declaration and his
speech at the Asia-Africa summit last year. Koizumi also released a
similar statement on Aug. 15 last year, the 60th anniversary of the
end of WWII.

An Abe administration must not present a vague view on historical
issues, for such is certain to undermine Japan's Asia policy and
trust in our country.

We are concerned about how Abe will conduct diplomacy.

(5) Possibility surfacing of secretary Iijima staying on in Abe

Sentaku (September 2006)

With Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe viewed as certain to become
the next prime minister, the possibility has now surfaced that Isao
Iijima, now parliamentary secretary to Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi, will continue as Abe's secretary.

Iijima is an influential aide to Prime Minister Koizumi. He has
thoroughly excluded the bureaucrats who resisted Prime Minister
Koizumi's reform plans, as the second-most influential person in the
Kantei, following the prime minister. Under such a situation, aides
to Abe and some members of the New Komeito have been overheard
saying that Iijima's influence is necessary for the next
administration to continue to carry out Koizumi reforms.

Iijima, though, has said: "I will go back to Koizumi's office in the
Parliamentary Hall as a policy secretary after Mr. Koizumi steps

TOKYO 00005209 006 OF 008

down as prime minister." But it is also true that Iijima remains
alert to the possibility of anti-Koizumi forces gaining influence
again after the Abe administration is launched. Given this, many
think he might be keeping in mind the possibility of continuing to
control the Kantei as a close aide to Abe.

(6) METI's Ishiguro may be appointed administrative secretary

Sentaku (September 2000)

The possibility is now growing that Norihiko Ishiguro, councillor of
the Minister's Secretariat at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and
Industry (METI), may assume the post of administrative secretary to
the prime minister in an Abe administration. When then Daiei
President Kunio Takagi decided in October 2004 to turn to the
Industrial Revitalization Corporation of Japan for help, Ishiguro
"confined" Takagi in a Tokyo hotel in a move to prevent Daiei from
doing so. At that time, then Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda
barked at METI Vice Minister Shuji Sugiyama and had Takagi released.
As seen in this incident, the Koizumi administration viewed
Ishiguro as a core person in the forces of resistance. In the
slush-money scandal involving METI in the summer of last year,
Ishiguro reportedly took the lead in covering up the facts by making
some ministry officials scapegoats, although it was an organized

(7) War of nerves to contain BSE five years after discovery of first
infection case; Survey found two infection peaks: Is the second peak
the last?

ASAHI (Page 2) (Slightly abridged)
September 10, 2006

Sept. 10 marks the fifth year since the discovery of the first BSE
case in Japan. To date, seven BSE-infected cows have been discovered
this year, but no panic occurred. The analyses of the 28 head of
cattle identified thus far as having been infected with BSE revealed
that there have been two infection peaks, centered in Hokkaido.
Concerned organizations are on edge about preventing BSE infection
from further spreading.

Two peaks identified in 28 BSE-infection cases

On August 11, the 28th BSE-infection case was identified in
Hokkaido. Hokkaido's survey team tracked down the cattle raised in
the same environment as the infected one until it turned 12 months -
a period when cattle are prone to BSE infection. It was found
through birth and sales records that 16 other cattle were raised
together with the one in question. They were all incinerated.

Disposal of BSE-suspected cattle continued on a scale of several
dozen following the discovery of the first BSE-infection case.
However, the impact of BSE infection has been limited since the
introduction of a traceability system and the narrowing down of
cattle subject to disposal. An official in Hokkaido noted, "Though
BSE-preventive efforts have become more efficient, we still had to
dispatch a team of helpers, as there were not a sufficient number of
local staffers."

Each time a BSE-infected cow has been found, a patient survey,
including investigations into the origin of feed - Italian-produced
meat-and-bone meal or Dutch-made animal fat - has been carried out.

TOKYO 00005209 007 OF 008

Several infection sources were suspected, but surveyors came across
infection cases involving cattle that never had contact with such
sources. Since it takes six to seven years on average to determine
whether the cattle were infected with BSE, it is difficult to
specify the causes of the infection.

Even so, the investigations have managed to detect the nature of the
spread of infection in Japan.

The periods when infected cattle were born can generally be narrowed
down into two groups - one from the end of 1995 through the summer
of 1996 and the other from the summer of 1999 through the fall of
2000. The birthplaces were concentrated in Hokkaido. Many experts
assume that cows infected in the first peak period around 1999 were
made into meat-and-bone meal to be eaten by other cattle, leading to
the second peak of infection.

Is the second peak the last? Meat-and-bone meal was totally banned
in 2001. Since then there have been no other infection cases,
excepting two, which were born shortly after the ban was

A tense atmosphere enveloped the government this April. A cow born
in 2004 tested positive in the first examination. Looking back on
the incident, a source close to the Ministry of Agriculture,
Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) noted, "We hoped that it was some kind
of mistake."

Fortunately, a closer examination found that it was negative.
Otherwise, MAFF would have been forced to drastically revise
domestic BSE-preventive measures.

Yasuhiro Yoshikawa, chairman of the Food Safety Commission Prion
Experts Council and a professor at Tokyo University, said, "We may
see about 20 infected animals over the next few years. However, the
thorough application of the regulations will further reduce the
possibility of infection."

Survey continues to examine whether two young cows that once tested
positive really had BSE

Of the 28 BSE-infected cattle, one aged 21 months and one aged 23
months are exceptionally young in comparison with infection cases
seen elsewhere in the world. In talks with the US to remove the
second embargo, the government limited cows eligible for imports to
those aged up to 20 months because of these two cases. However,
there continues to be debate as to whether they were really infected
with BSE.

US Secretary of Agriculture Johanns has been calling for Japan to
raise the age of cattle eligible for exports to up to 30 months
since the decision in July to resume beef trade, noting, "We want to
export beef based on international guidelines."

According to the World Organization for Animal Health's (OIE)
guidelines, boneless meat from cattle aged up to 30 months is safe.
The reason is that the accumulation of BSE-causing agents in young
cattle is so small that it is difficult to detect infection through
inspection, meaning that there is little point in restricting trade
in cattle in this age bracket.

Those two cows tested negative in other examinations, with the
amount of prions at a level of between 1/500 and 1/1,000 of the

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regular figure. The European Food Safety Authority has reported that
the results are unclear.

The National Institute of Animal Health has injected fluid extracted
from the medulla oblongata of these cows into two special mice to
see whether the disease is transmittable. Transmission usually takes
more than 200 days, but no infection has been detected in the two
mice even two years since the injection of the fluid. It is believed
that it will take two more years to obtain a final result. Close
attention is being paid to the outcome of the test.

(8) "Ozawa vision" aims at winning over conservative vote; Minshuto
putting up front the issue of correcting social disparity

ASAHI (Top play) (Excerpts)
Evening, September 11, 2006

This newspaper has obtained a copy of the set of basic principles
and policies that Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) President
Ichiro Ozawa has compiled for the party's leadership election.
Ozawa calls for ending the "politics of agitation" and moving to the
"politics of common sense." He wants the party to place at the
forefront of its agenda the correction of social disparity,
including the expanding of compulsory education, enriching social
welfare, and providing farmers with income compensation. In
addition, on the national security front, the use of the right of
self-defense would be limited solely to defending the homeland
(senshu-boei). In foreign policy, he clearly calls for
"self-reflection regarding the past war," and proposes "coexistence"
among countries. The contents have a strong awareness of the pending
birth of an Abe administration, and aims at winning over moderate
conservative voters to the party's side.

Main points of Ozawa's vision:

-- Expand mandatory education to cover children from five years of
age to high school.

-- Establish a "parent allowance" for households in which the
parent(s) also reside.

-- The use of the consumption tax should be designated for
social-welfare purposes only.

-- There should be free competition for managerial positions in the
public and private sectors, and the lifetime employment system
should be applied in principle to non-managerial occupations.

-- For basic agricultural products, introduce a system of specific
(household specific) income compensation.

-- Subsidies should be transferred in lump sums as a
self-sufficiency resource. Local towns and villages should be
integrated into a basic local government entity encompassing about
three hundred or so such communities.

-- The use of the right of self-defense should be limited solely to
the defense of the homeland.


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