Cablegate: Ruling Socialists Face Populist Gerb Challenge in Oct 28

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DE RUEHSF #1259/01 2971254
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 241254Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4447
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SOFIA 001259

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: RULING SOCIALISTS FACE POPULIST GERB CHALLENGE IN OCT 28
LOCAL VOTE

Ref: (A) SOFIA 1176, (B) SOFIA 678, (C) SOFIA 1007

1. (SBU) SUMMARY: PM Sergei Stanishev's ruling socialists square
off against GERB, the new populist party of Sofia Mayor Boiko
Borissov, in the election for mayors and municipal counselors on
October 28. Running on populist, anti-government rhetoric, GERB is
set to win mayoral races in Sofia and Plovdiv, the two biggest
cities, and take a sizable share of municipal counselor seats. The
Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) is fighting to keep its
traditionally strong representation at the local level and to avoid
another loss to GERB following the May election for members of the
European Parliament. An escalating teachers' strike and party
infighting are putting the Socialists under further pressure. The
vote is a survival test for the weakened traditional center-right
parties as well. The overall stakes are even higher this year as
the municipalities will soon manage hundreds of millions of euros in
EU funds. The outcome of the vote will lay the ground for the next
general election and could reshape the domestic political landscape.
A big GERB victory may shake PM Stanishev's government but would
not likely lead to an early general election. END SUMMARY

THE BSP-GERB FACE OFF

2. (SBU) Bulgarians will elect mayors and municipal counselors in
264 municipalities for a four-year (Ref. A). The Socialists, who
dominate the ruling three-party coalition, face a strong challenge
from the 10-month-old party of the charismatic but controversial
Sofia mayor. The rising force on the domestic political scene,
Borissov's GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) has
already edged out the Socialists as the most popular party. October
polls show nationwide support for GERB at 24 percent against 22
percent for the BSP. Borissov has made no secret of his ambition to
use the local vote as a springboard to the PM's post. For GERB, the
local vote is a learning exercise in party building and an
opportunity to assert itself as Bulgaria's leading party after its
narrow victory in the May elections for members of the European
Parliament (Ref. B). The party has no representation in parliament
having been established in 2006, well after 2005 national elections.
It owes its popularity almost entirely to Borissov's charisma and
its campaign has been largely a one-man show in which the Sofia
mayor plays the lead. With a shortage of prominent candidates at
the local level, the Sofia Mayor has led a national campaign more
appropriate for parliamentary elections. He portrays his party as
the only alternative to the three-party coalition, seeking to
capture the lion's share of the protest vote. Using strong pro-U.S.
and pro-EU rhetoric, GERB advertises itself as a center-right party.
As part of its campaign GERB released the governing program of a
future GERB-led government, a mix of sound economic ideas and
populist promises that many believe is unrealistic but has strong
appeal for disillusioned voters.

3. (SBU) The BPS's campaign has been focused largely on local
issues and oriented towards the party base. As GERB gains strength,
the BSP is struggling to win back its core electorate, mostly
elderly communists. Many of them feel betrayed by the BSP-led
government, which has pursued reformist economic policies. BSP
officials also told us the party was struggling to sort out
infighting over the mayoral nominations in 34 regional branches. An
escalating teachers' strike has further shaken the Socialists. A
no-confidence vote introduced by the center-right parties was
defeated on October 23, but the high-profile debate over the
government's handling of the strike could affect the BSP showing.
An ongoing conflict between PM Stanishev and influential BSP
Interior Minister Petkov over restructuring of the country's
security services puts further pressure on the BSP (Ref. C). The
party holds 12 of the country's 27 regional centers and has a number
of popular mayors who stand a good chance of being re-elected. To
win more mayoral seats, the BSP has entered a number of
controversial local coalitions, which has stirred passions within
the party but could allow it to achieve a better result.

ETHNIC TURKS, NATIONALISTS RETAIN BASE

4. (SBU) This year's vote also marks the local election debut of
extreme nationalist party Ataka, the surprise of the 2005 general
elections. The party, which is strongly anti-U.S., is likely to
retain its highly energized base although some of its supporters may
migrate to GERB. Ataka got a boost by the presence of French
far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen at the launch of its campaign on
September 30. The party has generally softened its xenophobic
language, campaigning largely on anti-government rhetoric and
exploiting sensitive social issues such as the plight of the elderly
and of those who have suffered from the transition from communism.
Even some mainstream voters agree with its vocal criticism of the
ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), largely
viewed as corrupt. A junior coalition partner in the government,
the MRF will likely retain its base in regions with a predominantly
ethic Turkish population. The vote in those areas will be watched
closely because of the MRF's practice of bussing dual citizens from
Turkey to vote for the MRF. The phenomenon, known as "electoral
tourism", has stirred passions among ethic Bulgarians and prompted

SOFIA 00001259 002 OF 004

legal changes aimed at curbing this practice (Ref. A). Support for
the MRF and Ataka is almost on par at around 7.0 percent, according
to polls in October.

OLD CENTER-RIGHT STRUGGLES TO SURVIVE

5. (SBU) The traditional center-right parties -- the Union of
Democratic Forces (UDF) and ex-PM Ivan Kostov's Democrats for a
Strong Bulgaria (DSB) -- look to bounce back after losing every
election since 2001. Some of the seven incumbent center-right
mayors stand a good chance of being reelected. The race in Sofia,
where the UDF and DSB have named a joint mayoral candidate, could
give an impetus for co-operation on a national level if he makes it
to a run-off. A weak showing in the local election will likely
accelerate these parties' descent (already under five percent) into
irrelevance as GERB becomes the leading center-right power in
Bulgaria.

6. (SBU) Ex-PM Simeon Saxe-Coburg's National Movement for Simeon
II (NMSS), a junior partner in the government, may fail to win a
single mayoral seat in any major center. The former King long ago
lost his halo and support for his group has plummeted to two percent
amid infighting and a legal dispute about the legitimacy of party
leadership.

7. (SBU) This year's vote is also contested by a record-high
number of so-called "business parties" (26 out of a total of 88).
These are regional parties registered especially for the vote and
formally or informally linked to local businesses seeking direct
representation in the local administrations. This interest comes
from the municipalities' powers to manage hundreds of millions of
euros in EU structural funds.

THE SOFIA RACE: TWO FORMER GENERALS AND A BANKER

8. (U) A record field of 44 candidates target the mayoral seat in
Sofia, a city of some two million which has been a center-right
stronghold since communism collapsed. The main contenders -- two
former generals (from the Interior Ministry and National
Intelligence Service) and a Swiss-born banker -- promise an
intriguing race. According to all polls, incumbent Mayor Borissov
will win re-election, if not directly on October 28 then certainly
in a run-off on November 4. Below are profiles of the three
front-runners.

9. (SBU) Gen. BOIKO BORISSOV, 48, who won Sofia's by-election two
years ago, is one of Bulgaria's most popular officials, with
approval ratings exceeding 60 percent. Before becoming Sofia mayor
in November 2005, he served for four years as Interior Ministry
Chief Secretary. He was appointed to the post by ex-PM Saxe-Coburg
Gotha, whom Borissov previously served as a personal bodyguard.
Borissov's Armani-clad tough-guy image, plain language, and close
ties with local media contribute to the popularity and high profile
of the former firefighter and national karate champion. As a
result, Borissov's checkered past, involving at least superficial
links to 1990's organized crime groups, has not marred his
popularity. His tenure at city hall has been overshadowed by
chronic problems with garbage collection and frequent rows with the
Municipal Council but his mixed record has not affected his
popularity. He portrays himself as an alternative to the political
status quo. Campaigning under the motto "Open Government," he
promises new moral and transparent governance. His opponents point
to his past connections with strong-arm groups and unsavory business
interests. Borissov, who has been extraordinarily helpful to the
U.S. Mission both at the ministry and the mayoral office, does not
miss an opportunity to boast about his "special ties" with the U.S.
The incumbent mayor attracts votes from both the left and the
center-right, from all age groups and social strata but his
electorate is soft and less mobilized than that of his major
opponents.

10. (SBU) Gen. BRIGO ASPARUHOV, 62, a Soviet-trained communist-era
spy who headed the National Intelligence Service (NIS) in 1991-1997,
is one of the most controversial figures within the BSP. His tenure
as NIS chief is remembered mostly for its alleged involvement in
bringing down the first center-right government of Philip Dimitrov
in 1992. After he left the service, Asparuhov was investigated for
destroying sensitive communist State Security files but the charges
were later dropped. In 2003, the intent of then PM Saxe-Coburg to
appoint Asparuhov as his security advisor triggered vocal opposition
in Sofia as well as NATO capitals. A leading figure in the BSP's
hardline faction known as the Generals' Movement, Asparuhov has been
lately sidelined by the party leadership. His reappearance on the
political stage has led to endless speculation. BSP insiders
explain PM Stanishev's surprise support for Asparuhov's nomination
as a tactical ploy to confront Borissov with an equally tough
candidate - a general, well aware of the former bodyguard's
questionable past and capable of exposing it. BSP officials told us
another reason for the PM to bring Asparuhov back in the game could
be Stanishev's desire to secure the Generals' support in his ongoing
battle with Minister Petkov for control over the secret services.

SOFIA 00001259 003 OF 004

Asparuhov, who campaigns under the motto "Dialogue and
Responsibility," could mobilize the BSP base and possibly make it to
the second round. He does not appeal to the broader electorate and
his chances of winning the race are minimal.
11. (SBU) MARTIN ZAIMOV, 45, a respected financier who served as
Deputy Central Bank Governor in 1997-2003, is the joint nominee of
the center-right UDF and DSB. Born in Switzerland to a Bulgarian
mother and a British father, he has a degree in macroeconomics from
the London School of Economics. Zaimov is credited for being a
champion for the introduction of the currency board in 1997, which
laid the groundwork for Bulgaria's current financial stability. His
grandfather Vladimir Zaimov, shot by the authorities in 1942 after
being found guilty of spying for the Soviet Union, was regarded by
the communist regime as one of Bulgaria's greatest communist heroes.
Interestingly enough, Zaimov's campaign manager says this family
link might be a plus in the election, as it could help attract some
leftist voters in case he makes it to a run-off. Zaimov, whose
campaign motto is "I Love Sofia," has attacked Borissov for his
ineffective use of funds and mismanagement of municipal property.
More of a technocrat than a politician, Zaimov is less known to the
broader public than his opponents. He enjoys the support of the
staunch center-right but his inability to talk in plain language
about Sofia's problems may make it difficult for him to reach the
broader electorate.
"THUGS" VS "CRETINS"

12. (SBU) The campaign, which started September 26, took an
interesting turn last week when a personal row between the two
generals running for Sofia mayor turned into a mud-slinging contest,
overshadowing any discussion on the issues of Sofia. Asparuhov
fired the first shot, calling Borissov "a man with questionable past
and unclear future" and vowing not to allow a man with ties to
organized crime to govern Sofia or Bulgaria. "A thug remains a thug
even with general's epaulettes," said another senior Socialist,
adding that the incumbent mayor has "missed several stages in human
development." Borissov fired back by calling them "cretins" and
then dropped the bomb, announcing that several weeks ago Asparuhov
had begged him to join his party. Zaimov has stayed away from the
fray, choosing instead to campaign on issues such as wireless
internet and green Sofia. His advisors told us that Zaimov may
bring up the issue of Borissov's controversial past at the final
stage of the campaign.

13. (SBU) Other candidates in Sofia include NMSS MP Antonia
Parvanova, Ataka's Slavi Binev, who is a member of the European
Parliament and owner of several striptease bars and is also known
for his ties to organized crime, and colorful basketball coach
Konstantin Papazov. Polls show that none of them have a realistic
chance of winning.

Other Cities

14. (U) Local factors and personalities play an important role in
local elections, in which political parties form different
coalitions in different municipalities. Many mayoral candidates are
backed by multi-party coalitions, or party candidates run as
independents to gain broader support. Here are brief descriptions
of the key mayoral races:

15. (SBU) PLOVDIV -- Bulgaria's second biggest city has been a
traditional center-right stronghold since communism collapsed; a
Socialist breakthrough in this election is unlikely. The clear
front-runner is GERB candidate Slavcho Atanasov and the only
question is whether he will win in the first or second round against
Socialist MP Zahari Georgiev. Incumbent Mayor Ivan Chomakov, one of
UDF's landmark mayors, is not running for re-election due to sagging
popularity amid allegations of corruption.

16. (SBU) VARNA -- Incumbent Mayor Kiril Yordanov stands a good
chance of winning a third term in office with support from the BSP.
He is also allegedly backed by organized crime group TIM, which
dominates Bulgaria's largest Black Sea city. The race marks the
return to politics of Gen. Dimo Gyaurov, a former center-right MP
who served as intelligence chief in 1997-2003. He is the joint
candidate of UDF, DSB and NMSS.

17. (SBU) BURGAS -- The race in this southern Black Sea city is a
rare case of partnership between GERB and Kostov's DSB. Their
candidate, Dimitar Nikolov, poses a challenge to incumbent Mayor
Yoan Kostadinov who is running for a fourth term in office with
support from the BSP. Supporters of extreme nationalist Ataka,
which enjoys solid support in Burgas, may decide the outcome of a
possible run-off.

18. (SBU) KURDZHALI -- This southeastern town with its
predominantly ethnic Turkish population is a traditional stronghold
of the MRF whose Mayor Hasan Azis is the leading candidate. His
main opponents are the candidate of a broad coalition centered
around BSP and Ataka and the joint nominee of GERB and several
center-right forces. A possible run-off will likely be decided by a
vote along ethic lines.

SOFIA 00001259 004 OF 004

19. (SBU) ROUSSE -- The Danube city's incumbent Mayor Bozhidar
Yotov, BSP, is leading the polls. His main opponent is GERB's
candidate Vanyu Tanov, the former chief of the service for fighting
against organized crime making a political debut.

20. (SBU) BLAGOEVGRAD -- The race in this southwestern town is
dominated by two leftist candidates: incumbent Mayor Lazar
Prichkapov, who is the former regional communist party chief, and
Socialist MP Kostadin Paskalev, the town's former mayor who quit in
2001 to join national politics. A charismatic and respected
politician, Paskalev is among the most vocal critics of PM Stanishev
inside the BSP. The Socialists nominated him for the mayoral job
hoping that if elected, he will focus on local issues and stop
scrutinizing the BSP leadership's moves.

21. (SBU) COMMENT: The election is hotly contested and many
mayoral races will be decided in a second round run-off on November
4. The unique local alliances formed for the local vote, often
characterized as the "election with many winners," will allow more
than one party to claim "victory." Pundits focus on the BSP-GERB
races, the outcome of which could reshape the domestic political
scene and lay the ground for the next general election. Insiders
from both sides believe a strong GERB showing over BSP would deal a
serious but not fatal blow to Stanishev's team. Political experts
see escalating strikes (as civil servants seek salary increases) and
BSP infighting as more serious threats to the current government's
stability. END COMMENT.

BEYRLE

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