Country Angrier, Republicans Face Bigger Losses

With Country Angrier, Republicans at Edge of Even Bigger Congressional Losses

A new poll of the fifty battleground congressional races

The latest Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey of the competitive battleground districts reveals an intensely angry electorate, even more sour on Republicans who have not distanced themselves enough from Bush and are now at risk even at the edge of the current map of competitive congressional seats. Democratic candidates are now ahead by 4 points in the 40 most vulnerable Republican seats, even in the bottom tier. A near majority of 48 percent in these Republican seats say they “can’t vote to re-elect" their Republican incumbent, while Democrats are ahead in the open seats.

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This memo is based on a survey of 1794 likely voters in the 50 most competitive Congressional districts, including 1384 likely voters in the 40 most competitive Republican seats and 400 likely voters in the 10 most competitive Democratic seats. The survey was conducted September 18-23, 2008.

In their latest memo, Stan Greenberg, James Carville and Andrew Baumann emphasize how the increased anger about the country and a sharper focus on the economy have damaged Republican incumbents and put even more Republican seats in jeopardy. Democrats are in a position to take half of these seats or more and clearly the battleground extends beyond these 40 districts. We hope you find this study helpful in your work. If you have any questions or comments, please contact us at 202-478-8300.

In this release

Analysis

Survey (PDF)

Graphs (PDF)

Crosstabs (PDF)

Targeting Crosstabs (PDF)

District List

ENDS

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