FPI Overnight Brief

FPI Overnight Brief

August 20, 2010
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Iran

The Obama administration, citing evidence of continued troubles inside Iran’s nuclear program, has persuaded Israel that it would take roughly a year — and perhaps longer — for Iran to complete what one senior official called a “dash” for a nuclear weapon, according to American officials – New York Times

South Korea, a nation that prides itself on its adaptive economy and its tight alliance with the United States, has come under pressure from the Obama administration to sacrifice the first for the sake of the second by signing on to stringent new sanctions against Iran. After much dithering, Seoul learned this week that it is running out of time to respond. – Washington Post

South Korea will soon start separate talks with the United States and Iran as it comes under pressure to join U.S.-led sanctions to force Tehran to drop its nuclear ambitions, a government official said on Friday. - Reuters

German federal prosecutors said Aug. 19 they had charged two men on suspicion of exporting equipment to Iran intended for use in making long-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. - AFP

Jeffrey Goldberg reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will wait to see if the West’s nonmilitary methods work, but is prepared by the end of the year to order a unilateral attack on the Iran’s nuclear facilities. We invited eight experts on the Middle East, national security, and counter-proliferation to engage the issues raised in Goldberg’s story. – The Atlantic
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Iraq

[A] mood of deep apprehension tinged with bitterness is taking hold as Iraqis digest the reality that the American invaders whom they once feared would stay forever are in fact going home, when their country is in the throes of a deep political crisis that many think could turn increasingly violent. – Los Angeles Times

The sense of duty among those who serve here, still strong, is nonetheless tempered by the fact that the war is winding down slowly — or, as one officer put it, petering out — with mixed results. The invasion has left behind a democracy in an autocratic part of the world, but a troubled young one with uncertain control over its security and destiny. – New York Times

A five-month deadlock over forming a new government in Iraq risks undermining people’s faith in their fledgling democracy, a senior member of an influential Iraqi political party has admitted. – The National

Thousands of American civilian officials poised to take over from the US military in Iraq next month face a daunting range of obstacles in nation-building that include reduced security, cutbacks in their budget and the continued failure of the Iraqis to form a government. - Guardian

Al Qaeda's Iraqi affiliate on Friday claimed responsibility for a suicide attack on an army recruitment center in Baghdad in which at least 57 recruits and soldiers were killed. - Reuters

Laura Rozen reports: Diplomat Larry Butler, the top political advisor to NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe Adm. James Stavridis, is heading to Baghdad where he will advise the incoming top commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, Gen. Lloyd Austin. - Politico

Iraq’s bloody-minded and inefficient bureaucracy is one of several problems oil majors face. Many are still hopeful about the country’s prospects, but the euphoria of last year, when the government started auctioning large fields, has given way to caution. Increasing Iraqi oil production from 2.5m barrels a day to 12m, a quarter more than Saudi Arabia pumps now, will take more than the six to seven years that the government projects, not least because of Iraq’s continuing political violence. - Economist

John Negroponte writes: We should not underestimate the effect that a continued demonstration of interest and concern can have on Iraq's future. It is important that not only Iraq but the region as a whole understand that this long-suffering country continues to enjoy strong American support. A properly endowed U.S. government civilian presence in Iraq can help preserve the gains of the past seven years and help avoid a repeat of the instabilities of the past. – Foreign Policy
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Middle East

Jordan's King Abdullah II, one of the United States' most Western-oriented allies in the Middle East, has faced an unusual amount of domestic criticism in recent months that has coincided with a trend toward more autocratic governance, observers say. – Washington Post

Political tensions have risen in recent days in the Persian Gulf state of Bahrain, where Shiite Muslim clerics and a prominent activist have been arrested as the island kingdom gears up for parliamentary elections in October. – Los Angeles Times

Israeli and Palestinian leaders are close to an agreement to resume direct peace talks after nearly two years, with an official announcement expected as early as Friday, according to U.S. officials. – Wall Street Journal

A Gaza-bound ship carrying women activists and aid for the blockaded Palestinian territory will leave Lebanon's northern port of Tripoli for Cyprus on Sunday, an organizer said on Thursday. - Reuters

A Saudi Arabian judge has asked several hospitals in the country whether they could damage a man’s spinal cord as punishment for his attacking another man with a cleaver and paralyzing him, the brother of the victim said Thursday. – Associated Press

No more fatwas for Sheikh Abdel Mohsen Obeikan, the Saudi cleric and royal court adviser who earlier this year earned notoriety for rolling out an eyebrow-raising religious decree that called on women to give men breast milk to avoid illicit mixing – Babylon and Beyond
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Afghanistan

A close adviser to President Hamid Karzai, arrested last month on charges of soliciting a bribe, was also under investigation for allegedly providing luxury vehicles and cash to presidential allies and over telephone contacts with Taliban insurgents, according to Afghan officials familiar with the case. – Washington Post

Afghanistan’s new intelligence chief said this week that the Taliban appeared to have the upper hand in the insurgency but could still be defeated with better cooperation between Afghan and coalition forces and a stronger government effort to build trust in the rural communities. – New York Times

As the spotlight of the Afghan war focuses on the south, insurgent activity is increasing in parts of the east, with Arab and other foreign fighters linked to al Qaeda infiltrating across the rugged mountains with the help of Pakistani militants, Afghan and U.S. officials say. – Associated Press

John Kerry, the chairman of the U.S. Senate's Foreign Relations Committee, says he has a better understanding of Afghanistan's war and the problems facing ordinary Afghans after visiting the country this week. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Afghan and Coalition forces have stepped up operations against the Taliban in the southern Afghan provinces of Helmand and Kandahar, killing and capturing dozens of leaders and foot soldiers during raids. – Long War Journal

Afghan and Coalition forces killed three members of a little-known Salafist terror group during a raid in Afghanistan's northeastern province of Kunar yesterday. – Long War Journal

Nine years after the Taliban regime was toppled, the American-led coalition is still struggling to build an army from the ragtag remnants of former mujahideen groups. Only when it does so will foreign soldiers be able to go without provoking a collapse of the government. Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan’s president, says that Afghan forces should be ready to take over by 2014. But there is a desperately long way to go: a recent American government inspection found only 23% of Afghan soldiers could work unsupervised. During operations, they remain almost totally reliant on NATO troops, who suffer twice as many casualties - Economist
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New START

Stephen Rademaker writes: It appears increasingly likely that the Senate will not approve the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty this year. Ironically, if the treaty is not approved, its supporters will bear most of the blame – Washington Post
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Russia/Europe

Six regions — including those worst-hit by this summer's wildfires and drought — and many more municipalities will go to the ballot boxes on Oct. 10, and United Russia seems determined to make up for a surprisingly poor showing in the last elections in the spring. Jittery that discontent over the ruling elite's handling of the fires might translate into fewer votes, United Russia is sidelining prominent members in favor of lesser-known officials with deep roots in the regions, analysts said. – Moscow Times

Jobs in Russia’s law enforcement sector are being bought by the mafia for more than £30,000 a time, such is the level of corruption, according to a new report. - Telegraph

Russia is throwing open its planned purchase of a helicopter carrier to a tender involving foreign and Russian firms, ending France's status as the exclusive bidder, a shipbuilding official said Aug. 19. -AFP

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev promised on Thursday to "eliminate" those behind this week's car bomb in the volatile North Caucasus region. - Reuters

Russia is to step up safety at its nuclear facilities after wildfires threatened to engulf one center, raising fears of a radiation leak, the head of the state nuclear corporation said on Thursday. - Reuters

Masha Lipman writes: What makes today's response to the fires so special is not just the generosity, but people's ability to organize quickly and efficiently, to gain the necessary knowledge and information, and to communicate them to others. That's an outstanding achievement in an environment that strongly discourages public initiative. Most people who took part in the rescue effort are young urban Russians, the educated professionals and entrepreneurs who have learned to rely on themselves and are at ease with the world of new media and global communications. They are the genuine modernization force in Russia, where the Kremlin preaches modernization but consistently tramples on the public's autonomy. – Foreign Policy

Today Georgia has reinvented itself as the star of the Caucasus. It is less corrupt than most former Soviet republics and one of the easiest places in the world to do business, according to the World Bank. Its liberalised economy has weathered Russian embargoes, and the state held together during the war with Russia. Its police do not take bribes and electricity is no longer a luxury. Most important, people are no longer surprised by such success. The biggest transformation is in their minds. - Economist

Ukrainian police are searching for a missing editor whose newspaper was known for its criticism of law enforcement agencies, Interior Minister Anatoly Mogylyov was quoted as saying on Thursday. - Reuters

France has expelled an Egyptian Muslim cleric it accused of preaching hate, the ministry of the interior said Thursday, the latest deportation carried out in a crackdown on crime. - Reuters
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China/Tibet

FPI Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork writes: American officials should know by now that nothing is gained by acquiescing to China's overbearing behavior on Tibet or any other issue. Adapting to Beijing's "correct understanding" of Tibet undermines not only the Dalai Lama and human rights for Tibetans, but also America's own "core interest" in seeing these respected in Tibet and China as well. To be credible, America must clearly and publicly pursue a well-established policy on Tibet. – Wall Street Journal
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North Korea

North Korea said it has reached a consensus with China concerning the resumption of international talks on ending its nuclear arms program, the North's official news agency reported - Reuters
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Defense

The U.S. Army on Aug. 19 published the Army Operating Concept, which describes how the service will fight in 2016 to 2028. The 65-page paper describes combined arms maneuver and security operations as the service's core contributions to the joint force. – Defense News

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates this week codified the 20 elements of his effort to cut "excess and duplication" with the publication of a memo detailing his plans, distributed throughout the Pentagon Aug. 16. The document, which does not list any new elements of Gates' war on excess, officially orders key Pentagon staff to assist in executing the 20 moves aimed at eliminating redundancy, which the secretary described in a widely publicized Aug. 9 speech. – Defense News

Defense Secretary Robert Gates "still has a lot to do" before retiring from office, the Pentagon's top spokesman said Thursday. – The Hill

The CIA is launching a new effort devoted to nuclear and other major weapons threats. Agency Director Leon Panetta said Wednesday the effort would aim to confront "nuclear, chemical and biological" WMDs. It will be initiated by the National Counterproliferation Center, which operates beneath the head of the intelligence community. – The Hill
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Pakistan

The United States pledged an additional $60 million Thursday to the U.N. flood relief effort in Pakistan, bringing its total contribution to $150 million in a move designed to encourage other governments and private donors to boost their aid. – Washington Post

As Pakistan grapples with a staggering humanitarian disaster that has left millions of people homeless and many more cut off without food or clean water, American officials both here and abroad pledged increased support to the nation on Thursday, hoping to bolster a relationship that is widely viewed as critical to stability in the region – New York Times

The U.S. has increased its aid commitment to flood-ravaged Pakistan to $150 million from $90 million, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday, as Richard Holbrooke, the U.S. special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan, called on China to do more. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Islamic militants are exploiting the strain this summer's monsoon floods placed on the military and government by regrouping their forces in northwest Pakistan, provincial officials warned Thursday. – Los Angeles Times

Pakistan's deadly floods are a "slow-motion tsunami" that has presented an ongoing crisis, Ban Ki-moon, the UN chief, said on Thursday night as he urged countries to give more aid. - Telegraph

Pakistan has announced it will set up an independent commission to oversee flood relief amid international concern that the country's reputation for corruption was hampering efforts to raise aid money. - Telegraph

Pakistan said it will clamp down on charities linked to Islamist militants trying to exploit anger among flood victims, amid fears their involvement in the relief effort would undermine the fight against groups like the Taliban. - Reuters

Pakistan will ask the IMF to ease restrictions on a $10 billion loan in the face of the worst floods in the country's history, the Financial Times reported on Friday. - Reuters

Ban Ki-moon writes: We simply cannot stand by and let this natural disaster turn into a man-made catastrophe. Let us stand with the people of Pakistan every step of the long and difficult road ahead. – International Herald Tribune

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India

India's main opposition party is demanding that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh explain a leaked e-mail from an American official that the party says shows the Obama administration is seeking to link U.S. investment in India to damages for the 1984 Bhopal gas leak. – Washington Times
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The War/Lockerbie Bomber

The American Civil Liberties Union has filed a lawsuit against the FBI, the CIA and other intelligence agencies, demanding records about the detention in the United Arab Emirates of a U.S. citizen who claims that the U.S. government colluded in his arrest and torture. – Washington Post

U.S. senators ratcheted up pressure on the Scottish government over its decision to release the convicted Lockerbie bomber one year ago Friday, sending letters to U.K. and Scottish leaders demanding an array of medical, legal and diplomatic documents related to the release. – Wall Street Journal

Charles Krauthammer writes: Just as the people of Japan today would not think of planting their flag at Pearl Harbor, despite the fact that no Japanese under the age of 85 has any possible responsibility for that infamy, representatives of contemporary Islam -- the overwhelming majority of whose adherents are equally innocent of the infamy committed on 9/11 in their name -- should exercise comparable respect for what even Obama calls hallowed ground and take up the governor's offer. – Washington Post
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Ideas

Noah Pollak writes: The Obama administration joined the U.N. Human Rights Council with high hopes. But the Council has proven too hostile to democratic values to be reformed. It is time that the administration abandoned the Council. And it is time that Congress stopped funding it. - Politico
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Thailand

A reputed Russian arms dealer will be extradited to the United States, an appeals court in Thailand decided Friday, overturning a lower court's rejection of a U.S. extradition request and ending concern that the man dubbed the "merchant of death" would be set free. – Washington Post

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Australia

In Australia, a healthy economy is not enough to keep voters happy. The governing Labor Party, led by the country’s first female prime minister, Julia Gillard, is facing one of the tightest election races in recent memory against a conservative opposition that has capitalized on rising anger over immigration, fiscal spending and party politics – New York Times

Australia could have its first minority government in 70 years, a worst-case scenario for investors, with an election-eve poll showing the ruling Labor party drawing level with the conservative opposition - Reuters

Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard ruled out changes to her planned 30 percent mining tax if re-elected on Saturday, as powerful miners and Green lawmakers threatened to restart hostilities over the issue. - Reuters
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Africa

South Africa's national civil service strike disrupted lives throughout the country Thursday for a second day as a million workers, including medical personnel, teachers and clerks, refused to allow routine services while they demanded higher wages. – Los Angeles Times

South African police fired rubber bullets to disperse crowds blocking roads and healthcare workers prevented patients from entering hospitals as a strike by more than 1 million civil servants grew on Thursday. - Reuters

The election in Africa’s most populous country—a heady mix of 150m people, 250 ethnic groups and 36 billion barrels of oil reserves—is due in January. Many Nigerians hope it will prove different from those of the past decade, in which the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has used ever more violence and fraud to keep its grip on power. But with only five months to go, [Goodluck Jonathan] the man most likely to win has not said if he will even run. - Economist
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Americas

Josh Rogin reports: President Obama has used his power to bypass the Senate confirmation process to push through the nomination of Mari Carmen Aponte to be the next U.S. ambassador to El Salvador, despite lingering GOP concerns about her long-ago relationship with a Cuban operative. – The Cable

Jose Cardenas writes: No matter how hard the Obama Administration tries to "reset" U.S. relations with Latin America, Hugo Chavez is there to spoil the fun. After coming into office believing that George W. Bush was singularly responsible for frayed relations with a gaggle of radical populist regimes in the region, and all that was needed to set things right was the president extending an open hand and flashing his biography, the administration is finding out that things aren't so simple – Shadow Government

The hip-hop star Wyclef Jean's bid to become the president of Haiti appeared to be in doubt last night after an election official said he was not on the list of candidates for the 28 November poll. – Guardian

Mexicans carrying candles and flowers paid tribute on Thursday to a mayor killed by drug hitmen, while officials vowed a tough response to increasingly bold cartels but resisted calls for more troops. - Reuters

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Announcements

FPI seeks college juniors or seniors, graduate students, or recent graduates to work as unpaid interns at its office in downtown Washington, DC for the fall semester. For more information, and to apply, please visit FPI's employment page.

Thirty-seven former U.S. government officials, human rights and democracy advocates, and Russia experts warned Wednesday that the arrest of Russian opposition figure Boris Nemtsov at a demonstration on July 31 and other anti-democratic steps by the Russian government constitute an “alarming trend” and that continued abuses should have “serious consequences” for U.S.-Russian relations.

FPI has developed Foreign Policy 2010, a briefing book available on the FPI website, which pulls together articles and op-eds from leading thinkers in each of the key foreign policy issue areas. FPI will be updating the briefing book on a regular basis throughout 2010. To suggest additional articles or content for the briefing book, please email info@foreignpolicyi.org.

If you believe in our mission and would like to support our activities, please consider making a donation to the Foreign Policy Initiative to ensure our future success.

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Events

Homeland Security 2020: Maritime Security
Heritage Foundation
August 23

Homeland Security 2020: Science and Technology
Heritage Foundation
August 24

The Economic Element of National Power
Institute for National Security Studies
August 24-25

Homeland Security 2020: Working with the Private Sector
Heritage Foundation
August 25

Homeland Security 2020: Cybersecurity
Heritage Foundation
August 26

Homeland Security 2020: State and Local Efforts
Heritage Foundation
August 27

Empire for Liberty
Cato Institute
September 1

Recent Shifts in North American Relations
Hudson Institute
September 2

Advancing the Interests of Women and Girls
Center for Strategic and International Studies
September 7

The National Guard and Reserves
Center for a New American Security
September 7

When is International Peacemaking Illegal?
United States Institute of Peace
September 10

Demography and Women's Empowerment
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
September 13

Previewing the September 26 Venezuelan Elections
Hudson Institute
September 15

A Discussion with Libyan Ambassador Ali Suleiman Aujali
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
September 15

Egypt at the Tipping Point
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
September 17

Governing the Far North
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
September 21

The Great Game: Afghanistan at the Shakespeare Theatre Company
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
September 24

A Modern Narrative for Muslim Women in the Middle East
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
September 30

Canadian and US Power in the 21st Century
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
October 6

On the Trail of the DC Sniper: Fear and the Media
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
October 7

The Future of US-Indian Relations
Center for a New American Security
October 20

Rethinking a Middle East in Transition
Middle East Institute
November 3-4

Irving Kristol and the Neoconservative Persuasion
American Enterprise Institute
March 7
The Overnight Brief is a daily product of the Foreign Policy Initiative, which seeks to promote an active U.S. foreign policy committed to robust support for democratic allies, human rights, a strong American military equipped to meet the challenges of the 21st century, and strengthening America's global economic competitiveness. To submit comments or suggestions, email overnight@foreignpolicyi.org.

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