One US Senate Race May Indicate The Overall Election Results
There are many complex and unsteady indicators in the current Presidential race in the United States. Gauging the results, whether Republicans will retain the Senate majority, and who will win the White House becomes less clear each day the election nears.
One key race that may indicate the overall election momentum, and reveal potential US election results, is the battle to succeed retiring Republican Senator Lamar Alexander. This is a race for his open Senate seat in Tennessee, which may give remarkable insight into the results of a potentially close Presidential race.
Senator Alexander has been in office since 2003 in Tennessee, a state that has seen a Republican in both of the Senate seats for over two decades. Just as importantly, in the 2014 race for the seat Senator Alexander beat his democratic rival thoroughly with a win of 61.9% to 31.8%.
The prospects of a Republican losing this senate race in a tightly held Republican red state has remained relatively unlikely for years.
However, with so many unique factors now directly impacting the elections, results from this particular race may be an indicator for the level of momentum the Democrats have to make inroads into such predominantly red states.
Moreover, if the current Democratic contender, Marquita Bradshaw, comes to narrow the election race for Senate, it will be a substantial sign of how Trump’s divisive tenure has negatively impact Republican chances for holding the Senate.
Marquita Bradshaw challenges her Republican rival as a Black environmental activist and single mother. She has years of volunteerism and activism that may validate her strong standing in the Democratic community, even though she was not the establishment backed runner.
Her primary party challenger was James Mackler, a veteran and attorney, who also received the endorsement of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). For her to win by a reasonable margin in the Democratic primaries is already indicative of a more coherent grass roots shift in Tennessee.
As Election Day arrives, this unique and specific Senate seat and how it is won or lost, will be a viable gauge for the overall US Presidential race results.
If Democrats take this senate seat, which is unlikely, it will profoundly demonstrate the level of momentum that exists among voters and set the tone for an overall Democratic win.
If the seat is lost, then the size of the margin, the party vote gap for this specific seat, will be a useful indicator regarding the Electoral College margins for winning the White House.
In prior elections, similar specific vote indicators have existed, as shown in the 2016 elections where the state of Florida became the foundational decider between a Trump win or loss, requiring the Supreme Court intervention for a final decision.
Monitoring the polls and early results for this Tennessee Senate seat may be one of the more useful tools for calling the increasingly tenuous and close overall US election results.
Mark Rais is the creator of the think tank Trend Analysis Network, writer for the technology and science industry and volunteer senior editor for an on-line magazine. He has published several books and written numerous articles on the topics of macro-economics, technology and society.