Iran’s support to Taliban - a bad bet

Russia, China, and Iran have made it clear that they intend to recognize the Taliban. However, it would be inquisitive that Iran embraced a former foe. Ideologically, the Taliban is a Deobandi Sunni group with the political agenda of imposing sharia according to the Hanafi School of Jurisprudence. Taliban nurtured anti-Shia sentiments, committing the worst atrocities against the Hazara community. During the 90s, Iran had armed the Northern Alliance to fight against the Taliban. Taliban established the Islamic Emirate in 1996 and were recognized by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Iran supported the Northern Alliance front against the Taliban under the leadership of Commander Ahmad Shah Massoud.

However, Iran has been very practical in its relations with the Taliban. Iran established ties with the Taliban because it saw them as a useful tool to undermine the United States in Afghanistan. But this presents difficult questions for Iran. The Taliban has been sectarian in its outlook and deliberately anti-Shia. In 1998, Taliban attacked the city of Mazar-i-Sharif and killed eight Iranian diplomats and correspondents from the state news agency IRNA. In the present scenario, Iran hopes that its new ties with the Taliban will prevent the revival of an anti-Iran policy. The Iranian Supreme Leader has insisted that the Taliban have changed. But these hopes may be misplaced.

While the Taliban have made all the right noises about having an inclusive government – there is little evidence that they will remain so ‘flexible’ once all foreign troops are out and international attention shifts away from Afghanistan.

The Taliban have grounded in intolerance and a very conservative interpretation of Islam. The Taliban do not have popular support in Afghanistan. They managed to walk into Kabul because the Afghan armed forces and political establishment had lost the will to fight. And that was the outcome of a growing belief in Afghanistan that Kabul could not withstand the Taliban advance. So self-preservation meant that local leaders simply let the Taliban walk into their cities and settlements.

Even if those leaders who were based in Doha talk about tolerance and inclusiveness, the support base remains extremely conservative. This will bear heavily on the future direction of the Taliban and the policies it will adopt. Taliban will never allow any cultural influence of Iran in Afghanistan. When the Taliban were ruling Kabul, they categorically rejected the cultural link between Kabul and Tehran. Once the Taliban stabilizes itself in Afghanistan, the relation between Iran and Afghanistan would be limited to fulfill their own interests. As if now there are threats looming that Iran has to address it, that of the drug trade and rising number of refugess.

The high volume of opium smuggled across the 950k border between Iran and Afghanistan on the way to Europe, which has contributed to the highest addiction rates in the region. Given Widespread destruction is fueling an economic crisis, as an outcome, it is compelling the Taliban to get dependent on the narcotics trade for survival. This in turn will be a threat to Iran as the Taliban can convert Iran into a transit point while distributing drugs in Iran as well. As per a recent finding from a US-based newspaper, there is a hamlet with few huts known as Qala-e-Biwaha, or “village of widows.” Most of the village’s men have disappeared — killed while trying to smuggle opium across the desolate frontier into neighboring Iran. Most of them have two choices i.e. smuggle drugs or join the Taliban.

And Afghan refugees number around 3million in Iran. Taliban rule has already presented Iran with an influx of refugees, putting significant strain on Iran's ability to provide basic necessities. Poopy trade and people's influx are two immediate challenges before Tehran.

Another, very clear risk for Iran is that the Taliban will establish close ties with Saudi Arabia. Riyadh was among the handful of states that recognized the Taliban in power in 1996. It is not difficult to see why Riyadh would establish ties with the Taliban again. There is an obvious sectarian affinity between Saudi Arabia and the Taliban. This is a new opportunity for Saudi Arabia to gain some leverage against Iran. The regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia could escalate in a new arena, and Iran would be on the back foot here. Taliban is not a trustworthy friend for Iran due to their strategic partnership with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Scholars believe that relation between Iran and the Taliban is not a strategic partnership and will not remain flexible, keeping into consideration deep historical and ideological differences and Iran’s close links with Tajik and Hazara ethnic groups in Afghanistan.

Author's profile : Shahram Akbarzadeh is Research Professor of Middle East & Central Asian Politics and Convenor of Middle East Studies Forum at Deakin University. Prior to his appointment at Deakin University in 2014, he was a professor of Middle Eastern politics at the University of Melbourne. His numerous publications include works on Middle East politics, Central Asian politics, and the politics of radicalization among the Muslim community of Australia. He held the prestigious ARC Future Fellowship between 2013-2016.

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