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MetService: Severe Weather outlook – Feb 17

MetService: Severe Weather outlook – Feb 17
Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 2:27pm Saturday 17 Feb 2018

Valid from Monday 19 February 2018 to Thursday 22 February 2018

Cyclone Gita is expected to approach New Zealand from the northwest early next week. There remains some uncertainty with regards to the speed and track of Gita, but the passage of this system across New Zealand on Tuesday and Wednesday is likely to bring a period of highly impactful severe weather. People should be aware of the potential for coastal inundation, especially where high waves,low atmospheric pressure and strong onshore winds come together. Heavy rain may affect some areas and there is a potential for rapidly rising streams and rivers and flooding. Furthermore severe gales associated with Gita are likely so people are advised to secure property and items that may be blown away by strong wind gusts.

Currently it is considered most likely that Gita will track eastsoutheast across central New Zealand on Tuesday and Wednesday, but as has previosly been mentioned there is some uncertainty regarding the speed and track.

On Tuesday and Wednesday there is a high confidence of heavy rain for the South Island from Westland and Canterbury northwards. There is also a high confidence in heavy rain for the far south of the North Island including Manawatu to Wellington and Wairarapa. The risk of heavy rain is considered to be moderate farther north over the North Island, from Taranaki and the central plateau southeastwards as indicated on the chart.

On Tuesday and Wednesday there is a high confidence in severe gales over Westland,the Canterbury high country, Buller, Nelson, Marlborough, Wellington, Kapiti,Wairarapa and Taranaki. There is a low confidence of severe gales in a broader area from Northland southeastwards as indicated on the chart.

Low confidence:
a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence:
a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
High confidence:
a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen
New issues of this forecast are made available on this site at or before 16:30NZST

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