Dairy Farmers Drive Rural Confidence Boost
Thursday 20 July 2000
DAIRY FARMERS DRIVE RURAL
CONFIDENCE BOOST
New Zealand dairy farmers are
starting the new season on a fresh wave of optimism,
according to the latest results of the AC Nielsen/Rabobank
Rural Confidence Survey.
They widely expect to earn more
revenue, and plan to invest more on their farms in the next
12 months.
And they’re helping power renewed optimism in
the rural sector as a whole, at a time when recent surveys
show non-rural business confidence continuing to
ease.
Overall farm confidence has climbed since the last
survey in May – 55 percent of all farmers now say
agricultural performance will improve in the coming
year.
That’s up five percent on the last phase of the AC
Nielsen/Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey.
Over 40
percent of farmers say they will spend more on their
properties and 70 percent expect higher incomes.
However
more than 90 percent now expect to pay more for farm inputs,
and 88 percent predict continued interest rate rises.
Rabobank National Manager, Rural, Bryan Inch says the
overall lift in confidence is good news for the whole
country. “Farming is, and will continue to be the major
factor in New Zealand’s economic base. If things are
positive for farmers, there are going to be flow-on effects
for the rest of the country”.
“The results of this survey
confirm the current thinking that things are finally looking
positive for the rural sector. Product prices remain firm,
the climate continues to be favourable to production and
interest rates haven’t risen as high as many had expected”.
Of the industry sectors surveyed, dairy farmers
currently have the brightest outlook, with 76 per cent
looking forward to better industry fortunes, considerably up
from 53 per cent in May.
“The announcement of improved
payout figures in the industry, and the apparent
stabilisation of industry structure, appear to have made a
big difference to dairy farm outlook,” Bryan Inch says.
Mixed sheep and beef farmers are next most confident (49
percent), followed by beef producers (45 percent).
The
number of all farmers planning to spend more on stock, plant
and land this year (42 percent) has now shown virtually no
change for six months, a trend Bryan Inch describes as
showing that farmers are considering reinvesting some of
their recent gains back in their farms.
Dairy farmers are
again most likely to spend more (50 percent), followed by
beef and sheep farmers, while the total number of farmers
who say they will spend less (at 4%) shows virtually no
change.
More farmers in all sectors now expect their
gross incomes to rise this year (70 percent versus 65
percent), instead of staying the same (24 percent versus 29
percent).
Eighty-five percent of dairy farmers say they
will earn more revenue, followed by sheep (68 percent).
Bryan Inch says most farmers (88 percent) remain braced
for continued interest rate rises this year, but this figure
has now dropped twice in a row, albiet in slight increments,
from 94 percent in March.
As far as farm inputs are
concerned, however, 11 percent more farmers, or a total of
88 percent, now expect to pay higher prices in the coming 12
months.
“This obviously reflects the continued impact of
a relatively weak exchange rate, and points to possible
inflationary pressures to come,” Bryan Inch says.
The AC
Nielsen/Rabobank Rural Confidence Indicator is the first
survey of its type in New Zealand, and is assessed
bi-monthly, using AC Nielsen’s 1000-strong panel of farmers
throughout the country.
Next results will be released in
September.
ENDS