Are we there yet? Heading for a population of 5 million

Based on recent trends, New Zealand’s estimated resident population could reach 5 million late in 2019 or in 2020, after hitting 4.9 million at the end of September 2018, Stats NZ said today.

It took 30 years to move from 3 million (in 1973) to 4 million (in 2003). But it is likely to take only about half that time to increase by another 1 million – about 16 years. In 1908 the country had just 1 million people living here.

Link to Alternative text for graph of New Zealand population 1990–2018

How fast is New Zealand growing now?

New Zealand's population is currently increasing by one person every 5 minutes and 26 seconds, according to Stats NZ’s population clock.

Population growth reflects both patterns of migration and ‘natural increase’ (the difference between births and deaths).

In the year ended September 2018, the population increased nearly 90,000. More than two-thirds of that was from net migration, with the rest from natural increase, with 27,000 more births than deaths.

This 1.9 per cent growth for the September 2018 year was slightly less than the high of 2.1 percent in 2016.

The much slower growth rate of 0.5 percent in 2012, was driven by natural increase, during a period when more people left New Zealand as migrants, than came to stay.

The latest provisional estimate of annual migration in the year ended November 2018 was 43,400, plus or minus 1,500. This was the first official release of estimates using the ‘outcomes-based’ measure, which replaces the previous ‘intentions-based’ method of measuring migration, which it has replaced (see Net migration trending down).

The outcomes-based measure is a more accurate measure of migration than the intentions-based measure. This accuracy will flow through into other data uses, including official population estimates. (see Planned revisions below).

But migration is highly variable, both month to month, and over the years. While annual net migration has been high in recent years, there have been other periods when many more people left New Zealand than arrived here. For example, from the mid-1970s there was an annual net migration loss that went on for many years.

Note: Natural increase is estimated births minus estimated deaths. Deaths include war deaths occurring outside of New Zealand. Net migration is total movements for 1900–95 and ‘permanent and long-term’ migration for 1996–2017. Total population growth is natural increase plus net migration; this is different from population growth derived from population estimates which also incorporate census counts. 2018 figures are projected.

Overall, during the 20th century, natural increase was the main factor lifting New Zealand’s population. However, for the past five years, net migration has been the dominant factor driving population growth – a significant exception to this general driver of natural increase.

Migration is a two-way street – more than 1 million people born overseas now live in New Zealand, while hundreds of thousands of New Zealand-born live overseas, especially in Australia.

How many new Kiwi kids are born each year?

While population growth since 2013 has been dominated by net migration, the number of births and longer life expectancy also continue to play a part.

The annual number of births has been relatively steady at about 60,000 a year for the past six years, despite a decline in birth rates. In other words, the number of births for every 1,000 people is falling, but the growing population means total births remain at relatively high levels, after reaching a recent peak of almost 65,000 in the period 2007-10.

New Zealand’s total fertility rate in 2017 was down to 1.8 births per woman, its lowest recorded level (see Births and deaths: Year ended December 2017).

Estimated births and deaths occurring in New Zealand each year. Deaths include war deaths occurring outside of New Zealand. 2018 figures are projected.

Despite a much smaller population almost 60 years ago, there was an even greater number of babies (more than 65,000) born in 1961–62, when the birth rate per 1,000 people was higher. In 1961, the total fertility rate was 4.3 births per woman, more than double the replacement level of 2.1.

What’s the effect of our growing and aging population?

As New Zealand’s population grows and ages, generally slightly more people die each year, (almost 33,000 in the year to September 2018) partly offsetting the population growth from babies and new migrants.

The number of deaths a year exceeded 30,000 for the first time in 2011. Deaths are likely to increase, despite increasing life expectancy, because of the growing population, especially in older age groups.

Since the early 1950s, life expectancy for both men and women has increased by more than a decade. Based on death rates in 2015–17 (see New Zealand abridged period life table: 2015–17 (final), life expectancy at birth for men is 80 and 83 years for women.

How do we track the population?

We update national population estimates every quarter each year. These population estimates give the best measure of the population that usually lives in New Zealand, by age and sex.

The estimated resident population is always based on the previous census, with allowances for people who usually live in New Zealand (residents) who were missed or counted more than once on census night or were temporarily overseas. The figures are also updated each quarter for births, deaths, and net migration.

The estimates have proven to be accurate in the past. For example, following the 2013 Census, we revised national population estimates at 30 June 2013 down by 29,000, just 0.7 percent relative to the revised estimate.

After the 2001 and 2006 Censuses, national population estimates were revised up by 12,500 (0.3 percent) and 45,000 (1.1 percent), respectively (see How accurate are population estimates and projections?).

Planned revisions: We have a scheduled revision of the population estimates and population clock later in 2019 to incorporate new migration estimates and 2018 Census data.

We will let New Zealanders know more as we get closer to the 5 million-mark.

When will we get to 6 million?

Our population projections are an indication of the overall trend, rather than exact forecasts year by year. They are not predictions – the actual population growth could be lower or higher than median projection depending on factors including highly volatile migration.

The latest 2016-base projections indicate that New Zealand will probably reach the 6 million mark in the mid-2040s. However, it could be as soon as the 2030s, particularly if migration remains at historically high levels.

Alternative text for graph of New Zealand population 1900–2018

The line graph shows New Zealand’s population increasing from 800,000 people in 1900 to 4.9 million people in 2018 (2018 figure is projected).

The population of New Zealand reached one million in 1908, two million in 1952, three million in 1973 and four million in 2003.

Note: Figures for 1991–2017 are 'estimated resident population'. Figures for 1900–90 are calculated by subtracting estimated natural increase and net migration from 1991 population estimate.

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