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TNS Poll – Ikaroa Rawhiti Electorate

1 September 2005

Mâori Television TNS Poll – Ikaroa Rawhiti Electorate

Mâori Television is currently conducting a second election opinion poll of the Mâori electorates. Today Mâori Television is releasing the results of its poll of the Ikaroa Rawhiti electorate. This electorate poll was conducted from 17-28 August 2005 by TNS Research Ltd.

This week Mâori Television has released the results for the Tamaki Makaurau and Tainui electorates. These two polls were conducted during the same period, ie 17-28 August 2005. These results are available at www.maoritelevision.com.

Polls of the remaining electorates – Te Tai Tokerau, Te Tai Hauauru, Waiariki and Te Tai Tonga – will be conducted over the next two weeks. Mâori Television will release those results as they become available. All poll results will be announced on Mâori Television’s news programme, Te Kâea, and via embargoed media release.

Results for the Ikaroa Rawhiti electorate follow:

Preferred Party

If an election was held yesterday, which political party would you have voted for?

Preferred Party Ikaroa Rawhiti
Labour Party 51
Mâori Party 28
New Zealand First 9
National Party 5
Green Party 4
Destiny New Zealand 1
Act New Zealand -
Other 2
Base 294
Don’t know/ none 16
Base 350

Preferred Electorate Candidate

If an election was held yesterday, which of the following Mâori electorate candidates would you have voted for?

Preferred Electorate Candidate Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Parekura Horomia (Labour Party) 62
Atareta Poananga (Mâori Party) 32
Tauha Te Kani (Destiny New Zealand) 3
Other 3
Base 317
Don’t know/none 10
Base 350

Changed Vote?

In the last four weeks, have you changed your mind about the way you will vote?

Changed Vote Ikaroa Rawhiti
Yes 19
No 80
Don’t know 1
Base 350

Main Reason for Changing Vote in Last Four Weeks

What is the MAIN reason you have changed your vote in the last 4 weeks?

Main reason for changing vote Ikaroa Rawhiti
Policies or issues (general) 22
Tax policy 10
Student loans 6
The new Mâori Party 9
Was previously undecided 7
Campaign advertising 4
Watching/listening to the debate 4
Mâori issues 3
Labour Party policies 6
Do not want National Party 3
Other 9
Don’t know 10
Base (have decided to change vote in last 4 weeks) 67

Preferred Prime Minister

Of all political leaders in New Zealand, who would you most prefer to be Prime Minister?

Preferred Prime Minister Ikaroa Rawhiti
Helen Clark (Labour Party) 51
Winston Peters (New Zealand First Party) 16
Tariana Turia (Mâori Party) 7
Pita Sharples (Mâori Party) 3
Don Brash (National Party) 1
Richard Lewis (Destiny New Zealand) 1
Hone Harawira (Mâori Party) 1
Atareta Poananga (Mâori Party) 1
Other 2
None 6
Don’t Know 11
Base 350

Research Methodology

Date poll was conducted

Interviews were conducted over the period 17 August to 28 August 2005

Sample Size in each electorate
350 voter eligible Mâori aged 18+ (enrolled on the Mâori Electoral Roll)

Sampling Technique
Telephone Interviews. Random selection of telephone numbers (tele-matched from Mâori Electoral Roll) with quota sampling to ensure representative cross section by age and sex within each electorate.

Sample Coverage
Tamaki Makaurau

Sample Error
Maximum of 5.2% expressed at a 95% confidence level


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