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MMP Referendum now a two horse race

November 23, 2011

MMP Referendum now a two horse race

The voting systems referendum is now a two horse race between MMP and First Past the Post, a new analysis of opinion surveys show, and people should vote to keep MMP unless they want to return to FPP, Keep MMP campaigners say.

Keep MMP has analysed all published opinion polls in 2011 that asked voters’ preference of the alternatives to MMP on Saturday’s ballot paper.

For voters who expressed a preference First Past the Post is the clear leader, meaning if New Zealanders trigger a second referendum in 2014 by voting for change, it will be between MMP and FPP.

Keep MMP spokesperson Sandra Grey said New Zealanders needed to have both eyes open when casting their referendum vote.

“We face the real risk of a slim majority voting for change, thinking that is either how they improve MMP or get to discuss alternatives like STV or SM. This is not the case.”

“Make no mistake, if there is a vote for change on Saturday, all we will be doing is asking ourselves in three years time whether or not we want to go backwards to First Past the Post.”

“Let's not waste time and money on another referendum in 3 years time between MMP and an unfair system we’ve already rejected.”

“Let’s keep MMP, review it and make it even better.”

Sandra Grey slammed the advertising campaign by the anti MMP lobby, saying their advocacy of the SM system was a deliberate attempt to confuse voters.

As John Armstrong noted yesterday, SM now appears doomed. The public are not behind the system and it will not win the second question at Saturday’s referendum. It has come last in every single opinion poll this year, just like it came last in the 1992 referendum."

Sandra Grey advises those who like STV, PV or SM to vote to keep MMP in the first referendum question, then tick their favoured alternative in the second question.

"Then you can send a signal that you like one of those alternatives. But don't expect those options to beat FPP."

"There are two horses that might win this race, and three also rans," said Sandra Grey. "Put your money on the right horse - MMP."


Keep MMP analysed all published opinion polls in 2011 that asked voters about the 4 alternatives to MMP in Part B of the ballot paper. Below is a graph setting out preferences expressed in these 5 polls (high-res version here).

An excel sheet with the original figures, and links to the polls, is downloadable here.

Click for big version.


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