Video | Business Headlines | Internet | Science | Scientific Ethics | Technology | Search

 


Victoria climate change expert: predictions on track

10 December 2012


Victoria climate change expert: predictions on track


A new report co-authored by Professor David Frame, Director of the New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute at Victoria University, has confirmed that climate change predictions made 20 years ago are proving reasonably accurate.

Professor Frame and Dr Dáithí Stone, from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California, have had their findings published in the latest edition of Nature Climate Change.

The report compares predictions from the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report published in 1990, with global climate change data gathered over the past 20 years.

Their analysis suggests that the global climate is responding largely as predicted by the first IPCC report, which included a range of predictions for global temperature increase to the year 2030.

Half-way through that period, data shows that the actual global mean surface temperature increase was 0.35-0.39 degrees Celsius, which is in reasonable agreement with the 1990 predictions.

This is in spite of several climate-altering events that were not predicted, such as the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the collapse of the Soviet bloc industry in the 1990s, and the recent rapid, fossil-intensive growth in economies such as Asia.

Professor Frame and Dr Stone have taken a common approach to characterising the natural multiannual and decadal variability in climate models, and compared the results from these models against observed changes.

From the resulting study, it seems highly unlikely that recent changes can be accounted for by natural variability alone, even if the current generation of models significantly underestimated natural variations.

Professor Frame says that although the timescales associated with climate change are inconvenient for the evaluation of climate predictions, the 1990 prediction is sufficiently long ago that scientists are now in a position to begin checking it against data.

“It is important for scientists to go back and see how early climate change predictions are going.

“What we’ve found is that these early predictions seem pretty good, and this is likely due to the climate responding to concentrations of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere at a rate broadly in line with what scientists in 1990 expected.”

Professor Frame is one of a number of researchers including Professor Tim Naish and Associate Professor James Renwick at Victoria University who are contributing to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis, as lead authors for the Panel’s 5th Assessment Report.

The New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute based at Victoria University conducts research on climate science for policy and decision making, and identifies components of climate science that are relevant for how people respond to climate change.

ends

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Cosmetics & Pollution: Proposal To Ban Microbeads

Cosmetic products containing microbeads will be banned under a proposal announced by the Minister for the Environment today. Marine scientists have been advocating for a ban on the microplastics, which have been found to quickly enter waterways and harm marine life. More>>

ALSO:

NIWA: 2016 New Zealand’s Warmest Year On Record

Annual temperatures were above average (0.51°C to 1.20°C above the annual average) throughout the country, with very few locations observing near average temperatures (within 0.5°C of the annual average) or lower. The year 2016 was the warmest on record for New Zealand, based on NIWA’s seven-station series which begins in 1909. More>>

ALSO:

Farewell 2016: NZ Economy Flies Through 2016's Political Curveballs

Dec. 23 (BusinessDesk) - New Zealand's economy batted away some curly political curveballs of 2016 to end the year on a high note, with its twin planks of a booming construction sector and rampant tourism soon to be joined by a resurgent dairy industry. More>>

ALSO:


NZ Economy: More Growth Than Expected In 3rd Qtr

Dec. 22 (BusinessDesk) - New Zealand's economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the September quarter as a booming construction sector continued to underpin activity, spilling over into related building services, and was bolstered by tourism and transport ... More>>

  • NZ Govt - Solid growth for NZ despite fragile world economy
  • NZ Council of Trade Unions - Government needs to ensure economy raises living standards
  • KiwiRail Goes Deisel: Cans electric trains on partially electrified North Island trunkline

    Dec. 21 (BusinessDesk) – KiwiRail, the state-owned rail and freight operator, said a small fleet of electric trains on New Zealand’s North Island would be phased out over the next two years and replaced with diesel locomotives. More>>

  • KiwiRail - KiwiRail announces fleet decision on North Island line
  • Greens - Ditching electric trains massive step backwards
  • Labour - Bill English turns ‘Think Big’ into ‘Think Backwards’
  • First Union - Train drivers condemn KiwiRail’s return to “dirty diesel”
  • NZ First - KiwiRail Going Backwards for Xmas
  • NIWA: The Year's Top Science Findings

    Since 1972 NIWA has operated a Clean Air Monitoring Station at Baring Head, near Wellington... In June, Baring Head’s carbon dioxide readings officially passed 400 parts per million (ppm), a level last reached more than three million years ago. More>>

    ALSO:

    Get More From Scoop

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    Sci-Tech
    Search Scoop  
     
     
    Powered by Vodafone
    NZ independent news