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The US elections, UC expert Scott Walker

Opinion-editorial – the US elections, UC expert Scott Walker

November 8, 2012

Why I Hate Florida

By University of Canterbury political science lecturer Dr Scott Walker

I’ve always hated Florida. To me, it’s always been an amalgam of rednecks, loud-mouthed Yankee immigrants and virulently anti-Castro Cuban émigrés. While the state is actually more diverse than that, it has always been kind of on the wacky side: weather, people and certainly politics. Plus, it has a particularly oppressive type of heat that I really can’t stand (and I’m from Texas). But none of that is why I REALLY hate Florida. It comes down to something more selfish:

I can’t predict the way that the state will go in the Presidential elections.

I did a pretty good job predicting the 2004 elections, picking Obama. But Florida was a big blemish on my record, with Obama taking it. Now I’ve got even more reason to hate the state. I picked 49 of 50 states correctly (check out my Facebook page if you don’t believe me). But no, all of those Hispanic and black urbanites in Miami-Dade county had to come out to vote in higher than expected numbers and ruin my perfect outcome.

I think that most people will be talking about a possible “mandate” for the (now) two-term President Obama and the Democrats, with a reasonably large victory margin not only in the presidential race but a nice performance in key Senate Races as well. Obama will only have one House to work with, but maybe the way to look at that is maybe it will keep him humble. And people will be speculating about if maybe Obamacare is here to stay or how Obama will manage to work with Congress to avoid the punitive automatic budget cuts that will be kicking in in less than two months.

But I’m mostly still just sitting here thinking about how much I hate Florida. Let me state here and now. When I predict Florida four years from now, I’m flipping a coin.

ends

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