July 2011

Long-range forecaster Ken Ring says that as the seismic activity around Canterbury continues to subside, the trend indicates that Christchurch residents can rebuild without expecting a further series of destructive events like those that occurred from September to April.

Ring says, “The period since the end of April has been telling – significant earthquake activity has substantially decreased from that point. Of the 86 earthquakes since 4 September that were 4.5 and above on the Richter scale, 73 occurred before the end of April, and only 13 since, which is an 85:15 ratio. In total numbers, there have been some 7,700 shocks since 4 September, and 7,070 to the end of April, or 92%. Since the end of April, there have been 630.

“Any way you look at it, all activity was about 90% over by 30 April, and these numbers indicate that seismic activity is returning to normal patterns. It’s been nearly two weeks since Christchurch has had anything over 4.5 in magnitude, and if this overall trend since April continues Christchurch residents can start to rebuild their lives.”

ENDS

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