Warm, humid subtropical air is lingering over Aotearoa New Zealand and MetService is forecasting it to stick around through the weekend, meaning we can expect humid and wet weather to continue.

MetService Meteorologist Tui McInnes paints the picture: “A large high-pressure system lying out east has dug in its heels and dragged air from the subtropics over Aotearoa. And this high isn’t going anywhere soon, neither is the warm air! It is making for some sleepless nights and the turning up of fans – even in Wellington!”

This sub-tropical air makes for the persistence of warmer temperatures at night, lots of moisture for clouds and wet weather along with what is called ‘convective weather’.

“What is convective weather? Think big, bubbling clouds, showers that are suddenly heavy, and of course, thunderstorms. The latter could play a big role in the next few days, with risks of lightning and thunder for much of the country,” McInnes says. He adds, “Keep an eye out over Southland and Otago, particular hotspots over the next few days.”

But no matter where you are, thunderstorm or not, expect to have some wet weather.

“Whether you get periods of rain or just a few showers, everywhere is set to see some rainfall,” McInnes says.

Eventually, temperatures do take a dip towards more typical December figures as the weekend rounds out.

Of course, one question on many people’s minds is… What’s the weather like next Sunday? Well, the long-range forecast supports a visit from Santa and the reindeer, and a present for those who like Christmas outdoors.

As of today (Thursday 15) weather models are indicating high pressure around or over our shores on the 24/25 December. This is a good sign, as it will generally keep any of the widespread rain makers away, but that doesn’t rule out any of those afternoon heat showers popping up. There’s still a chance of rain affecting some regions and MetService will be able to give you more detail on that as we get closer to the day. Therefore, keep up with the forecasts next week before making the call about Christmas on the beach.

© Scoop Media