The government and its allies in the trucking lobby are once again resorting to smoke and mirrors to justify lavish spending on Roads of National Significance (RoNs). Their latest tactic is a new formula that doubles the benefit period used in business case ratio (BCR) calculations — extending it from 30 years to 60 years.

This creative accounting effectively doubles the supposed “benefits” of these projects, allowing the wealthy to make twice as many journeys in their luxury cars, while taxpayers foot the inflated bill. Stretching the numbers may make projects look more attractive on paper, but it is a poor and misleading way to prioritise public spending, especially when one sees that the trucking industry only pay 14% of the road building and maintenance bill, yet do 93% of the road damage. One wonders whether the same generous calculations are applied to hospitals, schools, or railways.

While billions are being poured into new RoNS, the government is simultaneously trimming hospital staffing budgets, stalling hospital rebuilds, and pursuing a strategy of managed decline for significant parts of the rail network.

TRAINZ is deeply concerned that these new formulas ignore the full picture of transport investment. Why should the government spend $20 billion on a motorway that carries only around 15,000 vehicles per day, when that money could fund a second harbour crossing for heavy vehicles, rail, cyclists, and pedestrians to relieve infrastructure that carries 5% of the nation’s economy over an aging bridge designed for 9-tonne trucks but now supporting 55-tonne loads?

There are formulas, and then there are formulas. Does this new one account for the $9.77 billion annual cost (4% of GDP) of road traffic accidents (MoT 2023)? Road injuries are among the top ten causes of health loss in children aged 0–14, and transport injuries account for a third of all health loss from injuries nationwide.

Nor do the government’s models seem to account for air pollution — now dominated not by exhaust emissions but by tyre, brake, and road dust. Emissions Analytics’ Nick Molden warned in 2023 that “tyre wear emissions are now more than 1,850 times the tailpipe particulate mass emissions.”

The HAPINZ study (Massey University, Kuschel et al. 2016) found that air pollution causes around 3,300 premature deaths each year in New Zealand — 2,247 (74%) directly linked to road vehicles — along with 13,237 hospitalisations, at an annual cost of $11.7 billion.

Has the government factored in the new railway to NorthPort, which could remove thousands of heavy trucks from Northland roads? Or considered straightening the North Auckland Line to improve travel times instead of pouring yet more billions into asphalt?

TRAINZ spokesperson Niall Robertson says, “Perhaps the government would like to look at TRAINZ’s formula for transport development using more rail.” He explains that the TRAINZ model builds on traditional BCR methods but includes broader social, environmental, and economic benefits — providing a more honest reflection of value.

TRAINZ chair Guy Wellwood adds, “Our formula is more logical and accurate than the governments. Ours is less populist and more aligned with serving communities and the environment, creating truly sustainable transport options.”

He continues, “Our approach is simple, valuable, and economical — and it even benefits motorists. By shifting more freight to rail, we make roads safer and reduce congestion. This would help the case for more passenger rail services to the regions.”

Robertson adds, “Motorists get a good deal from rail. It reduces the cost of road building and maintenance, lowers toxic pollution exposure, and provides a cheaper, cleaner way to move freight nationwide — with a 70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to road transport. Everyone benefits from cleaner air, as rail produces virtually no particulate pollution.”

An ESR study (2022) supports this: “Concentrations relative to roads, rail transport in New Zealand does not significantly impact ambient air quality.” Wellwood notes that “a major component of road-based air pollution is microplastics from tyre dust, which now contaminate waterways and are a leading source of oceanic microplastics.”

Robertson concludes, “Cars are convenient and comfortable, and most people want one — but 30% of New Zealanders, including the elderly, young, disabled, and those on low incomes, rely on a very limited, and very poor public transport service. Meanwhile, we continue to suffer the toll of road crashes, toxic air pollution, and rising greenhouse gases, while our oceans fill with micro-plastics”. Robertson adds, “It’s time to ask whether the government has factored any of this into its ongoing love affair with RoNS — a programme that only makes economic sense, their biggest justification, through smoke and mirrors”.

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