ANZ Job Ads Survey - November 2001

Data Flash (New Zealand)

The number of newspaper job advertisements decreased by 8.0% mom in November - the fourth consecutive monthly decline. The number of advertisements in November was 11.0% lower than a year earlier and 15.9% below the historic high recorded in July. The strongest decline was recorded in Christchurch, which recorded a 15.4% mom decline. Job advertising in Auckland fell 6.5% mom to be 17.3% lower than a year earlier.

The number of internet job ads decreased by 5.3% mom in November. This followed a 19.1% decline in October. The number of internet job ads in November was 13.9% lower than a year earlier.

We think that the current level of advertising is consistent with, at best, zero net job creation on an annual basis (see chart below). We forecast employment to decline by 0.2% qoq in Q4, reducing the annual growth rate to 1.1% from 2.2% in Q3.

Given the still sombre global economic environment and continued business uncertainty, we expect job advertising levels to soften a little further over coming months, consistent with our expectation that the annual rate of employment growth will dip mildly into negative territory in mid 2002 Today's release suggests that employment growth may be slowing a little more rapidly than forecast by the RBNZ in its November MPS.

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