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Summary - Survey of Cereal Areas and Volumes

Summary - Survey of Cereal Areas and Volumes – JULY 1, 2015

The objective of this AIMI survey of growers was to determine, as at July 1, 2015:

• the final size of the 2015 harvest of wheat, barley and oats

• sales channels and levels of on-farm storage, both sold and unsold, of the 2015 harvest

• autumn sowings of wheat, barley and oats, and sowing intentions for the spring of 2015

Data from 131 survey farms as at July 1, 2015 were scaled up to the national level using the most recent Agricultural Production Statistics. As with all surveys, there is a margin of error which needs to be considered in relation to this report. These figures reflect the position at the 1st July 2015 and there will have been changes since this time.

Key Points at 1 July 2015 (figures have been rounded to nearest 100):

Final average yields were virtually identical to last season, being just 3% lower for the two biggest crops, feed wheat and feed barley.

Milling wheat: Estimated final total tonnage (89,000 t) was down 10% compared to last year’s harvest. Of this total 77% has been sold (69,000 t), although most of the sold grain is still stored on farm (75%). The amount of unsold grain is 20,000 tonnes (23%), which is less than at the same time last year, 1 July 2014 (23,600 t). The amount of unsold grain increased between 1 April and 1 July 2015 (up by 3,900 t), as compared to a 6,700 t decrease in unsold grain between the same dates last year.

Feed wheat: Estimated final total tonnage (308,800 t) was down 2% compared to last year’s harvest. Of this total 88% has been sold (271,100 t), with 60% of the sold grain still stored on farm. The amount of unsold grain is 37,700 tonnes (12%), which is less than at the same time last year, 1 July 2014 (43,600 t). The amount of unsold grain decreased between 1 April and 1 July 2015 (down by 11,400 t), as compared to a 16,600 t decrease in unsold grain between the same dates last year.

Feed barley: Estimated final total tonnage (366,400 t) was up 7% compared to last year. Of this total tonnage 82% has been sold (301,900 t), with 52% of the sold grain still stored on farm. The amount of unsold grain is 64,500 tonnes (18%), which is more than at the same time last year, 1 July 2014 (43,700 t). The amount of unsold grain increased slightly between 1 April and 1 July 2015 (up by 2,500 t), as compared to a 16,100 t decrease in unsold grain between the same dates last year.

For other cereals: Compared to last year, estimated final total tonnage for malting barley (62,000 t) was unchanged, milling oats (24,200 t) was down by 15%, and feed oats made a huge 128% increase to 14,200 tonnes coupled with a similar jump in hectares. Malting barley had 11% of the total harvest unsold, while both milling oats and feed oats had only 1% unsold as at 1 July, 2015. Of the sold grain, 49% of malting barley was still on farm, as compared to 85% of milling oats but only 23% of feed oats. Between 1 April and 1 July 2015, the amount of unsold grain increased by 1% for malting barley, decreased by 59% for milling oats and decreased by 87% for feed oats (as compared to decreases of 87% for malting barley, 41% for milling oats and 14% for feed oats between the same dates last year).

Sowings and sowing intentions: The area sown in autumn/winter wheat or barley, as at 1 July 2015, was down 12% overall on autumn sowings plus intentions as at 1 April 2015. This decrease was mostly due to

a 21% drop in autumn/winter sowings of feed barley. When autumn/winter sowings were combined with spring sowing intentions, the area sown or to be sown in wheat or barley was down overall by 3% as compared to the area harvested in 2015. The estimated area of feed wheat to be harvested in 2016 is predicted to decrease by 2% from the 2015 harvest area, while the feed barley area is predicted to decrease by 8%. The area of milling wheat to be harvested in 2016 is predicted to increase by 18% from the 2015 harvest area.
Milling wheat (Tonnes) Figure 1a. Estimated NZ tonnage and sales channels for Milling wheat (tonnes) as at July 1 each year.

(Note: “Tonnes carried over” is the sum of sold and unsold stock carried over (still on farm) from the previous season. “Sold and delivered” relates to the current crop, excluding carryover stock.)

ENDS

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