Dairy dive not discouraging employers

Nearly four in five employers maintaining workforces heading into Quarter 4 despite falling price of dairy

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q4 2015

NEW ZEALAND (8 September 2015): According to the most recent Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today nearly four in five employers are heading into the coming quarter with no intention of changing their workforce. Of the more than 650 employers surveyed across New Zealand, a record breaking 79% indicated they would make no change to their current headcount. However, the fourth-quarter research indicates there will be some opportunities for job seekers in the months ahead, 16% said they intend to hire, and only 4% indicated they would be decreasing their headcount in Quarter 4, down two percentage points on last quarter.

Lincoln Crawley, Managing Director, ManpowerGroup Australia and New Zealand, said the number of employers not looking to make any changes to their workforces in the coming quarter is indicative of New Zealand’s perceived reliance on the dairy industry, but the low levels of employers decreasing their headcount is positive.

“While the dairy industry is key in New Zealand the downturn is not as steep as current confidence projections would have you believe, as reflected in the hiring outlook for the coming quarter. Wine exports are up 7 percent to June, and Kiwifruit producers are having a plentiful season. Economic growth, while slowing, is still positive.”

The national Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of +12%, while still positive is down a considerable 15 percentage points year-on-year, but remains stable quarter-on-quarter.

Across the regions, employers in Christchurch have reported the only decrease in hiring intention, down five percentage points quarter-on-quarter to an Outlook of +7%. The Outlook in Auckland remained stable quarter-on-quarter at +14%; employers in Wellington recorded an increase in hiring intention of three percentage points to an Outlook of +12%.

“At this time last year, we were seeing large volumes of work related to the construction efforts in Christchurch, this has since peaked and inevitably demand across the region, and in construction, has fallen, which has a flow on effect across other industries, particularly Manufacturing.”

Across the sectors, hiring in Services has recorded the most dramatic fall year-on-year of twenty-two percentage points, but remains relatively stable quarter-on-quarter, up two percentage points to +16%. Manufacturing and Wholesale Trade & Retail Trade both saw fifteen percentage points drop in hiring intention on last year, recording Outlooks of +6% and +11% respectively.

“The coming season is expected to be the biggest for New Zealand tourism ever seen, however we are yet to see that reflected in the hiring intentions of the Services and Wholesale Trade & Retail Trade employers.

“Historically, these sectors are reactive rather than proactive when it comes to hiring, but we would expect to see job opportunities and hiring intention increase in the near future.”

Hiring in Transport & Utilities is being spurred by consistent demand for both local and imported manufactured goods, employers in the sector reported the only increase year-on-year of nine percentage points and a considerable increase quarter-on-quarter of fifteen percentage points to record and NEO of +23%.

“There are supply and demand discrepancies in the Transport & Utilities sector when it comes to workers. From what we have seen, demand has been consistent, however employers drift in and out of active recruitment as they continue to face challenges in finding workers,” Mr Crawley said.

Employers in Mining & Construction and Finance, Insurance & Real Estate both reported slight decreased quarter-on-quarter of two percentage points, recording NEOs of +17% and +19% respectively. Hiring intention in Public Administration remained relatively stable quarter-on-quarter, down just one percentage point to +10%.

Across organisation sizes there were few surprises. Employers in the Large organisation segment reported the strongest Outlook of +24%, up four percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Micro businesses saw the largest increase in hiring intention quarter-on-quarter of six percentage points to a NEO of +10%. The Small business hiring Outlook remains stable at +19%, while Medium employers reported a decrease in hiring intention quarter-on-quarter of three percentage points, recording an Outlook of +9%.

“Smaller companies have a knee jerk reaction to economic movements, and as such are approaching the coming quarter more conservatively than their larger counterparts. The US economy filters through to larger organisations, and while locally owned smaller businesses are watching global occurrences the impacts are not as acutely felt. The general hiring Outlook remains positive across the board,” Mr Crawley concluded.

-ENDS-

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