Rabobank Beef Quarterly Q3 2015: Volumes Reaching Quotas
Rabobank Beef Quarterly Q3 2015: Traded Volumes Are Reaching Quota Limits
New Zealand and Australia beef exports to the US are set to reach their quota limits in Q4. Meanwhile, global economic conditions—such as the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of the yuan and the real—are having an impact on beef trade, according to the Rabobank Beef Quarterly Q3.
A strong US dollar has led to a reduction in US exports and support for US imports, while a weakening Chinese economy and devaluation of the yuan are curbing beef prices in China, and the devaluation of the real is expected to support Brazilian exports in the coming months. “With little change expected in major beef-trading economies in the coming quarter, other than a possibility of the US FOMC raising interest rates, a strong US currency is expected to continue to affect global beef trade”, according to Angus Gidley-Baird, Senior Animal Protein Analyst at Rabobank.
Highlights from the Beef
Quarterly Q3 2015
• New Zealand and Australia exports to the US are reaching quota limits, which—combined with the availability of supply in the US—will result in some short-term softening in the Australian and New Zealand markets.
• There has been little progress in trade developments in the quarter. Australia is still awaiting parliamentary processes to enact the China FTA, Brazil is still progressing towards a trade protocol with the US, and the Trans Pacific Partnership (TTP) remains in negotiation.
• Russia has extended its ban on agricultural products from the EU, the US, Canada, Norway and Australia by another year.
Q4 Price Outlook