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XE Morning Update January 31, 2019

NZDUSD 0.6483 -0.6%
NZDEUR 0.5871 -0.9%
NZDGBP 0.4951 -1.2%
NZDJPY 70.44 -1.0%
NZDAUD 0.9657 -0.1%
NZDCAD 0.8574 -0.4%
GBPNZD 2.0195 1.2%

The NZD opens at 0.6483

It has been a rough night for the Kiwi, with the markets continuing their “Risk-off’ run. There has been mixed news about Coronavirus. It is now thought to be less deadly than SARS for those infected, but more contagious. Russia has stopped issuing electronic Visas to Chinese nationals. The issue is that if it is seen as the prudent thing for countries to start to restrict visitors from China, then in the short term - at least from an economic point of view - the actual severity of the virus becomes less and less relevant.

Out of Europe, the UK formally leaves the EU this weekend, going into a transition period. Expect less talk about Brexit, and a lot more on the potential trade deal with the EU. This transition is expected to last for 11 months, although lets just say if it was to get extended, we would not be shocked. In a positive sign of things to come though, the Pound is starting to react to data again, and the Bank of England is becoming more relevant. They kept rates on hold overnight, however less members voted that a cut was appropriate, only 2 rather than the 3 expected. This has helped the Pound become one of the top performers. In the future expect a lot more focus on inflation targeting, and forward guidance, like we are used to with other Central Banks, and more volatility around BOE meetings.

We have manufacturing data out of China at 2:00 pm this afternoon. With Coronavirus fears and the Chinese New Year holidays, a negative surprise would not be too surprising.

Global equity markets remain mixed, - Dow -0.31%, S&P 500 -0.21%, FTSE -1.36%, DAX -1.41%, CAC -1.4%, Nikkei -1.72%, Shanghai -2.75%

Gold prices are up 1.3% trading at $1,589 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices are off, testing the lows at 52.25 a barrel.


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