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2020 Housing Market Stocktake
2020 Housing Market Stocktake: Covid-19 price dip may not be so sharp, as chronic shortage lingers.
We now expect a shallower correction in house prices of 6%, down from 9%. With short supply persisting, our projected house price falls should meet strong resistance.
The regions have fared far better than expected. Covid lockdowns barely affected farming, and the ‘working from home’ trend is fuelling demand.
The supply of homes has increased sharply. But we’re still falling short to the tune of 80,000 houses. The impact of Covid-19 casts a long shadow over the construction industry into 2021. Commercial property looks likely to bear the brunt of the adjustment.
There
are 3 strong foundations supporting the housing
market:
1. The housing market has a chronic
shortage;
2. Mortgage rates are at record
lows;
3. Population growth will continue, after the
disruption.
In the report, we provide a regional
breakdown. We asked our network of regional managers to give
us a ‘feel’ for activity across the regions. We
were encouraged by the level of optimism, especially in the
farming heartland.
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