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Stark Warning To Employers – Kiwis Preparing To Change Jobs

New research provides a stark warning to employers about losing staff.

The number of adults intending to change jobs this year is projected to rise sharply.

Horizon Research says its latest Employment Forecast Monitor shows concern about holding current jobs because of the COVID-19 pandemic is easing significantly.

Already labour-starved sectors like agriculture could see great movement of labourers.

Students also intend to move jobs along with senior business decision-makers.

Horizon says in the coming year 384,700, or 11% of adults, will look to change their jobs.

That’s an increase of 133,000 (and up from 7%) since the last measure in August 2020.

The number of adults who think it will be easy to change jobs is up from 86,300 in August to 140,200, perhaps reflecting confidence in New Zealand’s economic prospects.

Horizon says this indicates employers will need to be active if they want to keep employees.

Adults in Nelson, Marlborough, and Tasman have the highest intention to change jobs: 22% compared with 11% overall.

There is an above average intention to change jobs among students (26%), agricultural or domestic workers (18%), business managers/executives (17%), professionals and senior government officials (14%), and home-makers otherwise not employed (13%).

Job loss expectations:

Meantime, 255,200 adults think they will lose their jobs and have difficulty finding another during the next 12 months.

This equates to 7% of adults and is about at the same level as in August 2020.

Heading overseas to work:

The research also finds 68,400 adults intend going overseas to work in the next year, 32,400 of them temporarily. This could also indicate possible demand for COVID-19 isolation and quarantine facilities should they return within the next 12 months.

The projections are drawn from a December 2020 Horizon survey of 1,595 adults nationwide, representing the 18+ population at the last census. At a 95% confidence level, the maximum margin of error on the overall sample is +/- 2.5%.


Expectation%Estimated No. Adults
I will keep my current job41%1,488,400
I will lose my current job and easily find another1%46,700
I will lose my current job and it will be hard to find another6%208,500
I will change jobs easily4%140,200
I will change jobs with difficulty7%244,500
I will go overseas to work temporarily1%32,400
I will go overseas to work permanently1%36,000
None of these11%406,300
I am retired15%524,900
I am unable to work9%327,200

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