Māori Party Holds The Balance Of Power

Labour holds its marginal lead as it rises 1.4 points on last month to 36.9% while National is up 1.7 points to 36.5%. ACT rises 0.2 points to 9.5% and the Greens are up 1 point to 6.7%.

The smaller parties were the Māori Party 2.9% (+1.5 points), NZ First on 2.6% (-1.6 points), New Conservatives on 1.7% (-0.8 points), Democracy NZ on 1.6% (+1.1 points), and TOP on 0.8% (-0.9 points).

Assuming all current electorates are held, both Labour and National are down 1 seat each to 48 and 47, respectively. ACT is also down 1 seat to 12 while the Greens are up 1 on 9 seats. The Māori Party is up 2 seats to 4.

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 59 is down 2 on last month but remains marginally ahead of the combined total for the Centre-Left of 57 seats (no change).

For the first time in our poll since August last year, however, neither bloc can form government on its own and the Māori Party holds the balance of power.

Chris Hipkins has a net favourability of +28% (-5 points). Both Christopher Luxon (-4 points) and David Seymour are on -6% (-7 points).

Chris Hipkins also now has a negative net favourability rating with National voters of -5% down 18 points from +13% last month.

Among undecided voters, Chris Hipkins has a slight positive net favourability of +1% but has dropped 35 points from last month. Christopher Luxon is on -15% while David Seymour is on 0%.

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