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Ipsos Releases Its Annual Global Predictions Survey

Ipsos, one of the world's leading market research companies, unveils the results of its annual Predictions survey. This report covers 25,000 people in 34 countries (including 1,000 in New Zealand), giving their take on the year just gone – and sharing what they think lies ahead (the New Zealand survey was conducted after the 2023 general election, but before the new coalition government released its 100 day plan and Cabinet line-up).

New Zealanders’ views on the economy
73% of New Zealanders felt that 2023 was a bad year for New Zealand, and that things aren’t going to get much better in 2024:
 

  • 82% of New Zealanders feel that prices are going to rise faster than people’s incomes in 2024
  • 68% expect higher interest rates than in 2023
  • 67% expect higher unemployment than in 2023
  • Despite these economic concerns, 73% of New Zealanders feel optimistic that 2024 will be a better year for them personally than 2023.

Environmental concerns
Despite the majority of New Zealanders expecting the effects of climate change to worsen in 2024, our expectations of increased government actions to fight climate change are low:
 

  • 82% of New Zealanders feel that average global temperatures will increase in 2024,
  • 74% expect more extreme weather events in New Zealand than in 2023, with 58% anticipating a natural disaster hitting a major New Zealand city in 2024.
  • Answering prior to the release of the new government’s Cabinet lineup and 100 day plan, 46% expected the New Zealand government to introduce more demanding targets to reduce carbon emissions more quickly, (a level 9 percentage points lower than the global average, and behind 26 of the 34 countries surveyed).
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Social Issues
75% of New Zealanders expect immigration into New Zealand to increase in 2024, but 58% feel it is unlikely that New Zealanders will become more tolerant of each other.
 

  • 45% of New Zealanders expect to use social media less in 2024.
  • 30% of New Zealanders expect Donald Trump to be re-elected as US President.
  • Just 22% expect the war in Ukraine to end in 2024.

Artificial Intelligence
New Zealanders are more optimistic about the effects of AI than the global average. While 64% of the global sample believe AI will lead to many jobs being lost, the level is lower in New Zealand, at 56%. Conversely, 42% of Kiwis think AI will create many new jobs.
 

  • When it comes to AI in healthcare, New Zealanders have much lower expectations. New Zealanders are the third-least likely to believe that doctors are going to start regularly using AI to decide on patient treatments (45%, compared to the global average of 56%).

Carin Hercock, Managing Director of Ipsos New Zealand, said:

‘With high inflation and severe weather events creating widespread damage in NZ it isn’t surprising that three quarters of New Zealanders think ’23 was a bad year for the country, what might be surprising for many is that economic and climate related events were having a similar impact on countries all around the globe.

New Zealanders are slightly more optimistic that the global economy will get better in 2024, however a significant 82% think that prices in New Zealand will increase faster than peoples’ incomes and two-thirds are expecting unemployment to be higher as well.

This indicates New Zealanders will be heading into 2024 conscious of their spending, while also more wary than the global average of an expected natural disaster hitting one of our major cities.’

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