Business Confidence Remains Stationary Despite Early Optimism

Canterbury businesses confidence is levelling off, according to Business Canterbury’s latest Quarterly Canterbury Business Survey. Despite reaching a high point in December last year, business confidence has not continued its upward trajectory in 2025 as many had hoped.

Business Canterbury Chief Executive Leeann Watson says, "Business confidence has rebounded significantly since this time last year, but the early optimism late last year hasn't continued its upward trajectory into 2025, with consumer confidence and demand being slower to rebound than anticipated and continued geopolitical instability taking its toll."

"However, while our businesses aren’t getting more confident each quarter, it’s still generally positive out there.

"When we look at the key indicators, 59% of businesses are expecting to hire staff within the next 12 months and similarly, those expecting to invest in property, plant and equipment sits at 60%, compared to 57% last quarter.

"So, while the current environment could be described as stationary, it is by no means gloomy.

"We are seeing different levels of market recovery across different sectors, with businesses falling into three distinct categories: those making significant headway in growth, those in recovery mode but not yet ready to expand, and a sizeable group still struggling with challenging decisions about their future.

"The big challenges haven't shifted much, we're still hearing concerns around consumer confidence and demand, productivity and growth, inflation and interest rates, cashflow, and compliance costs.

"These remain front of mind for many of our members and the wider business community, and despite drops in the OCR, we are yet to see the full impact of these with many still on fixed rates locked in over the last two years, which is also impacting sticky consumer confidence and demand.

"Canterbury is positioned well to grow quickly when the market turns. Canterbury is the place to be, and people want to be part of our growth story. Since 2018, over 40,000 people have moved to Canterbury from other parts of New Zealand."

"Our regional economy is also highly diversified, 5 th compared to Auckland at 11 th and Wellington at 14 th - contributing to business resilience here, with 82% reporting confidence in their ability to manage disruption.

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