Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence September 2025

The Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index (ECI) rose 1.1 points to 89.9 in the September quarter. But despite that rise, confidence about the state of New Zealand’s labour market remains close to the lows seen after the first Covid lockdown in 2020. (Note: A level below 100 indicates that there are more households who are pessimistic about the outlook than those who are optimistic.)

“It’s still a tough market for job seekers,” said Satish Ranchhod, Senior Economist at Westpac. “The unemployment rate is already at 5.2%, and we expect it will rise to 5.3% through the back part of the year. Against that backdrop, around two-thirds of those we spoke to told us that it’s hard to get a job, and most expect job opportunities will remain limited over the year ahead.”

“With a soft economy and ongoing job losses, job security is a big concern for many New Zealanders,” commented Mr Ranchhod. “Nearly a quarter of those we spoke to think their job will be less secure over the year ahead. Job security is a particular concern for those aged under 30 and those aged over 50. Women are also feeling less secure about their jobs compared to men.”

“Confidence in the jobs market is low across all regions. However, those respondents in our dairying powerhouse regions, including Southland, Otago and Waikato, are less pessimistic,” noted Mr Ranchhod. “Firmness in commodity export prices has been boosting incomes, and that’s helping to support spending and the demand for labour.

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“Confidence amongst employees working in both the private and public sectors remains firmly in pessimistic territory this quarter. Private sector employees’ confidence is up this quarter with an increase of 6.6 points to 91.6 ECI, while public sector employees’ confidence has reduced 2.1 points down to 94.1 ECI,” noted Imogen Rendall, Market Research Director of McDermott Miller Limited. “Both private and public sector employees continue to remain particularly concerned about the current job market, with more than six in ten saying that jobs are currently hard to get,” observed Ms Rendall.

A full description of the background and specifications of the survey are attached. The survey was conducted over 1-12 September 2025, with a sample size of 1,550. An index number over 100 indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists. The margin of error of the survey is 2.5%.

BACKGROUND

The Westpac: McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index is calculated from a specific section of the Westpac: McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Survey. This survey is carried out under joint sponsorship by Westpac and consulting firm McDermott Miller on a quarterly basis. The questions on which the Employment Confidence Index is based were added initially to the Survey in June 2004.

EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE INDEX

The five Employment Confidence Index questions are:

1. Do you think jobs are plentiful or hard to get?

2. Do you think job opportunities in New Zealand in a year’s time compared to now will be more plentiful, harder to get or about the same?

3. Do you earn more, less, or the same in your paid work now compared to this time last year? 4. Do you expect to be earning more, less or the same in your paid work this time next year? 5. Would you say your job is likely to be more or less secure over the coming year than now?

The first two questions are asked of all respondents (1550), the remainder to those declaring they are in paid work (802 or 52% of respondents). Of those respondents in paid work, 35% work in the public sector and 65% work in the private sector.

The Employment Confidence Index is calculated by McDermott Miller from percentage responses to the five questions. It is 100 plus the unweighted average of the difference between positive/optimistic responses and negative/pessimistic responses. A score above 100 shows more optimism than pessimism and vice versa for a score below 100. The Current Employment Conditions Index is calculated similarly by McDermott Miller from the questions on perception of current job opportunities and change in personal earnings over the last year. The Employment Expectations Index is calculated from the questions on expectations of change over the coming year in: job opportunities, personal earnings and job security.

SURVEY SPECIFICATIONS OF SEPTEMBERE 2025 EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE SURVEY

A Sample Size of 1550 interviews in September 2025 was obtained with interviews for the latest Consumer Confidence Survey conducted between 1 – 12 September 2025.

The Margin for error of the Consumer Confidence Survey is a maximum of plus or minus 2.5 percent, at 95% confidence.

The Sampling Technique employed is stratified by Regional Council region, with additional quotas set for key demographic variables. Respondent's towns of residence are recorded, allowing analysis by a three-way split: Metropolitan Centres (Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch) Secondary Centres (ranging in size from Timaru up to Hamilton and Dunedin), or Rural (the remainder).

The Data Collection Methodology is self-completion online interviews.

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