Ford Courier 15 Times More Likely To Be Stolen Than Ford Ranger, New Analysis Reveals

New research from MoneyHub shows that vehicle theft risk changes dramatically when adjusted for the number of cars actually on the road, with the Ford Courier revealed as New Zealand's highest-risk vehicle.

MoneyHub's analysis combines NZ Police theft data (22 June – 20 December 2025) with CarJam fleet registration numbers to calculate theft odds for individual owners.

Key findings:

• A Ford Courier is 15 times more likely to be stolen than a Ford Ranger – both are Ford utes, but 1 in 55 Couriers will be stolen annually, versus 1 in 833 Rangers.
• Mazda Bounty jumps from #18 to #2 – only 5,112 remain registered, yet thieves target them at extreme rates (1 in 59 annual odds).
• Toyota Hilux drops from #1 to #12 – while it tops raw theft numbers, 153,884 are registered. Individual risk is moderate (1 in 418).
• Corolla and Ranger owners can relax – despite high raw theft numbers, both are LOW risk when adjusted (1 in 971 and 1 in 833).
• Older Japanese imports dominate extreme-risk categories – Courier, Bounty, Wish and Tiida typically lack factory-fitted immobilisers.

MoneyHub Head of Research Christopher Walsh says the data tells a different story than raw theft numbers alone:

"Everyone assumes the Hilux is the riskiest car to own because it's stolen most often. But when you account for how many are on the road, it's actually the old Ford Courier that should worry owners most. One in 55 will be stolen this year if we extrapolate the Police’s six months of stolen car data – that's an extreme risk that should influence both car insurance decisions and security investments."

New Zealand's Highest Risk Cars for Theft – Adjusted for Number on the Road

Risk levels:

• EXTREME = 10+ per 1,000 annually (1 in 100 chance)
• VERY HIGH = 5–10 per 1,000
• HIGH = 2.5–5 per 1,000
• MODERATE = 1.5–2.5 per 1,000
• LOW = under 1.5 per 1,000

Important: Fleet data from CarJam, analysis excludes trailers, motorbikes and mopeds. MoneyHub has grouped models, e.g. Mazda Demio + Mazda2 = Mazda Demio total on road.

About MoneyHub:

MoneyHub is New Zealand's leading independent financial guidance website, offering free research, tools, and guides to help New Zealanders make better money decisions.

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