Mixed Data Provides Ongoing Uncertainty About Recovery

Worldline’s consumer spending across core retailers in January shows an increase of 0.6% compared to January 2025. This result in itself is a glimmer of hope for retailers as the month included significant weather events that impacted spending in several regions, most notably Bay of Plenty was down -3.4% and Gisborne down -1.0%. The numbers have been bolstered by positive 1.3% gain in Auckland/Northland.

“Its great to see some positive sales and it gives us some hope that those green shoots we have been talking for several months might start to come through more strongly. Its early days and it is off a low base, but it gives us something to be upbeat about following the disappointing December sales and yesterdays unemployment data” Retail NZ Chief Executive Carolyn Young says.

The latest unemployment figures from Stats NZ in contrast made for sobering reading. The unemployment rate for the December 2025 quarter rose slightly to 5.4 percent, its highest rate since September 2015.

“The slight uptick in unemployment means retailers will be preparing for some flat, or even slow, months ahead, as consumers continue to focus on just getting by,” Ms Young says.

These numbers are another sign that it could be some time before consumer confidence improves to a point where we will see an upturn in sales in non-core expenses. “Retailers have been experiencing tough trading conditions for some time now, and while business confidence is largely positive overall, it is clear it could be some time before New Zealanders feel confident enough in the economic conditions to increase their discretionary spending.”

“Many retailers will be feeling as though they are just treading water as the economy moves sideways, rather than forwards. It is just another example of the difficult environment our retailers are faced with, with Centrix data released yesterday also showing retail business liquidations were up 34% year-on-year,” Ms Young said.

“However, many retailers are choosing to remain hopeful, with credit demand increasing 13% for that same period, reflecting some confidence among business owners to invest further into their business.”

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