OCR On Hold At 2.25% With Inflation Expected To Fall

Annual consumers price inflation was slightly above the Monetary Policy Committee’s 1 to 3 percent target band at the end of 2025. Increases in food and electricity prices and local council rates were the biggest contributors to above-target inflation.

The economy is at an early stage in its recovery. With ongoing strength in commodity prices, economic activity in the agricultural sector and regional New Zealand remains strong. Although residential and business investment is increasing, households remain cautious in their spending. The labour market is stabilising, but unemployment remains elevated. House price growth remains weak, dampening household wealth and inclination to spend.

In response to previous cuts in the OCR, economic growth is broadening across sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing, construction and some retail. Economic growth is expected to increase over 2026.

Inflation is most likely returning to within the Committee’s 1 to 3 percent target band in the current quarter. The Committee is confident that inflation will fall to the 2 percent midpoint over the next 12 months due to spare capacity in the economy, modest wage growth, and core inflation within the target band.

Risks to the inflation outlook are balanced. The global environment remains highly uncertain. Domestically, greater caution by households in their spending decisions could slow the pace of New Zealand’s economic recovery, risking inflation falling below the target midpoint. But with demand increasing in the economy, businesses could try to increase prices faster than expected, leaving inflation above the target midpoint.

The Committee agreed to hold the OCR at 2.25 percent. If the economy evolves as expected, monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative for some time. The Committee will continue to assess incoming data carefully. As the recovery strengthens and inflation falls sustainably towards the target midpoint, monetary policy settings will gradually normalise.

Read the full statement and Record of meeting: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/news/2026/02/ocr-on-hold-at-2-25-with-inflation-expected-to-fall

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