Waikato analyst UK bound with strategic planning tool

Wednesday, 18 May 2011, 10:20 am
Press Release: Waikato District Health Board

Some might say Amber McTainsh can predict the future.

She isn't a fortune-teller and doesn't have a crystal ball, but, as a business analyst in Health Waikato's Programme Management Office, the 26-year-old's focus is on the future of health needs in the Waikato.

Amber has been instrumental in developing the Pipeline Planning Model, a sophisticated strategic and operational planning tool, which helps the Waikato District Health Board, forecast long-term changes in healthcare demand.

The pictorial and data tool, which was 18 months in development, will help the organisation better anticipate future patient needs and use resources more efficiently, says Health Waikato chief operating officer Jan Adams.

"(It) will give the organisation greater flexibility in planning and delivering services in the short, medium and longer-term," says Jan, who initiated the project in 2008 as part of the board's Toward2020 business case for the Health Ministry.

The model began in 2009 with a patient flow map, analysing the number of patients admitted to Waikato Hospital and how long they stayed.

"We looked historically at one year," says Amber. "We looked at inpatient episodes and how many bed days they had, and forecast that against changing population demographics to forecast future needs."

This developed into a high-level strategic planning tool, similar to those used by leading companies such as Air New Zealand.

The Pipeline Planning Model allows hospital departments and healthcare services to consider what patient needs will be in 10 or 20 years time.

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It considers everything from Emergency Department presentations and admissions, to theatre procedures, transfers and readmissions, discharges, outpatient clinics and referrals.

The modelling, which uses a purpose-built, in-house database, will help reduce patients' wait time, improve scheduling and bed capacity management and workforce planning. It can test hypotheses to anticipate future patients' impact on services, enabling better planning for facilities, equipment, space and staffing requirements. [cid:image007.jpg@01CC152D.C92B6E00]Amber works closely with clients to forecast things such as bed numbers and service needs.

In the future, the Waikato District Health Board is more likely to deliver what patients need, and its departments and services will be able to work together better as they anticipate patient demand across the entire healthcare system.

With a $500 million building redevelopment programme currently underway at its Waiora Waikato hospital campus, this information is vital to the organisation in planning how best to meet changing needs and population projections.

The Pipeline Planning Model is vital to manage changing demographics in the Waikato, and how that affects health care services.

"The aging population is a concern," says Amber. "Baby Boomers (the generation born between 1946 and 1964) will peak in 2026, so the percentage of the population aged 65 and older is growing."

Predictions are that by 2026, the percentage of people aged 65+ in the region will increase by 62 per cent.

While approximately one-third (31 per cent) of patients treated at Health Waikato were 65+ in 2010, by 2026 that percentage will be closer to half of all patients (43 per cent).

That means increased pressure on services catering to older New Zealanders: the expectation is that the 65+ age group will use 63 per cent of all bed days at Health Waikato in 2026, compared to 46 per cent now.

The tool is already garnering good feedback from hospital staff and Waikato health service providers. There is large health sector interest in the Pipeline Planning Tool. Amber grew up in Tauranga, and studied for four years at Waikato University in Hamilton. She graduated with a Bachelor of Management Studies, majoring in economics and strategic management, in 2007.

Her first job was working for high-end New Zealand designer jewellery brand Kagi in Auckland, as a sales, finance and production assistant.

At the end of 2007 life changed dramatically when Amber's partner (now husband) Greg van Eyk was involved in a serious car accident. After spending the better part of one year nursing him back to health, Amber decided to stay in Hamilton and took up a job as a business analyst with the Health Waikato Programme Management Office at Waikato District Health Board.

She's been in the role for more than two years.

The leap from jewellery to health has been a learning curve, admits Amber, who says the industry has "its own language and culture" and can "take a while to get your head around". Her role with Health Waikato is one she enjoys. "I quite like the high-level side of things. It's interesting to see where things are going long-term," says Amber.

"It's important to know what you are building today is applicable in the future." Later this year Amber is hoping to research other overseas planning models, and perhaps apply some of what she has learnt in UK hospitals.

She heads overseas on June 10 for a one-year career break, combining travel and work as part of her OE. Amber hopes to secure a position with Mid Essex Hospital Services, in a similar role to what she has been doing in Hamilton. The role may give her exposure to the National Health Service planning models, knowledge that Amber can apply on her return to Health Waikato.

View the Pipeline Model http://www.waikatodhb.govt.nz/file/fileid/33614

Visit the Health Waikato Programme Management Office www.waikatodhb.health.nz/pmo for more information.

About Amber McTainsh Grew up in Tauranga; studied Business Management at Waikato University and has been working for Health Waikato for two years; is the lead developer and project manager of the Pipeline Planning Model, forecasting long-term healthcare needs for the Waikato region; in mid-June leaves for Europe on a one-year career break with the aim to work in strategic healthcare planning in Essex, England.

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Waikato District Health Board

Healthy People. Excellent Care

Waikato District Health Board (DHB) employs over 6500 people and plans, funds and provides hospital and health services to more than 391,770 people in a region covering eight per cent of New Zealand.