NZ Risks Australia-Style Tobacco Crime Surge If Harm Reduction Is Ignored

Monday, 23 March 2026, 8:13 am
Press Release: CAPHRA

CAPHRA says New Zealand risks repeating Australia’s illicit tobacco crisis if politicians and regulators ignore tobacco harm reduction and rely too heavily on restriction, high prices, and enforcement alone.

The warning follows an RNZ report that New Zealand Customs is seeing tobacco smuggling become more organised, large-scale, and sophisticated, with officials concerned New Zealand could follow Australia into gang-linked violence around illicit tobacco.

CAPHRA Executive Coordinator Nancy Loucas said the lesson from across the Tasman is clear.

“Australia is the warning, not the model,” Loucas said. “When governments make safer nicotine alternatives harder to access and focus only on enforcement, criminal networks step in to meet demand.”

RNZ reports that in Australia, criminal groups have been linked to more than 200 arson attacks at retailers and at least three homicides since 2023 as organised crime battles over the illegal tobacco trade. Reporting on the same crisis says illicit tobacco has cost the Australian economy about A$4 billion in a single year.

By contrast, New Zealand has delivered major smoking declines while allowing regulated access to safer nicotine alternatives. Ministry of Health data show daily smoking fell from 16.4 percent in 2011/12 to 6.9 percent in 2023/24, while daily vaping rose from 0.9 percent in 2015/16 to 11.1 percent in 2023/24.

CAPHRA says that is real-world evidence that adults switch when lower-risk products are available and regulated.

“New Zealand has achieved a great deal in the past decade,” Loucas said. “We should not throw that away by drifting toward the failed logic that more crackdowns, fewer choices, and harsher restrictions will somehow eliminate nicotine demand.”

CAPHRA says safer nicotine products are not risk-free, but they should be regulated according to their relative risk compared with cigarettes. The group says policy should keep the focus on reducing smoking-related harm, not protecting the cigarette market or creating new opportunities for organised crime.

Loucas said the same warning applies globally. She said the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control continues to resist fully embracing tobacco harm reduction even though its own treaty recognises harm reduction as part of tobacco control, and despite evidence from countries such as New Zealand that regulated safer alternatives can accelerate smoking decline.

“The WHO FCTC cannot keep its head in the sand while illicit markets grow and smoking-related harm continues,” Loucas said. “Enforcement has a role, but enforcement without harm reduction is how governments end up losing control of the market.”

CAPHRA says New Zealand should stay the course on evidence-based harm reduction, maintain adult access to regulated safer nicotine products, and avoid policy settings that push consumers toward illicit tobacco and criminal supply chains.

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