Did the Jewish Vote Trend Republican in 2010?

While a large majority of Jewish voters continue cast their ballots for Democrats, the percentage voting for Democratic candidates this year dropped significantly from 2008

During the run-up to the mid-term elections, conservative Jewish groups were hopeful that they would finally be able to break the historic lock that the Democratic Party has had on Jewish voters. To achieve that end, they tried to inject concern over Israel and Iran into the campaign. In several key Senate and Congressional races conservative organizations poured money into television advertisements warning Jewish voters that Democrats, under the leadership of President Obama, no longer had the interests of Israel at heart, and that the administration was shying away from confronting Iran.

In their post-election analyses both Eric Alterman, writing in The Daily Beast ("Jews Snub the GOP. Again") and Eli Clifton writing for Lobelog.com ("Emergency Committee For Israel Found Little Success in Making Israel or Iran a Top Issue" ) maintained that: the Jewish vote stayed firmly in the Democratic column; and, Bill Kristol and Gary Bauer's Emergency Committee for Israel was unsuccessful in trying to make Israel or Iran a significant issue in the election.

According to Clifton, a post-election poll of Jewish voters commissioned by J Street - an organization which identifies as "for pro-Israel, pro peace Americans" - showed that voters' concern over the economy, health care and government spending overwhelmingly trumped their concerns about Israel or Iran. The poll also "showed that Jews continued to vote overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates by a 66 to 31 percent margin."

The good news for Democrats is that in an election where only 38% of the white electorate voted Democratic (down from 46% in 2008 and 48% in 2006), Jews continued to support the Democratic Party by a considerable majority. The bad news is that there definitely was an erosion of support for Democrats by Jewish voters: in both 2008 and 2006, nearly 80% of Jewish voters cast ballots for Democrats. Thus, in an election that saw decreases in the Democratic vote in almost all demographic categories, the Jewish vote dropped by 16%, a loss greater than Protestants, Catholics, and White born-again or evangelical voters. This could partially be explained by the fact that unlike other religious groups, the Jewish vote had a much higher starting point.

Nevertheless, while Clifton gives the Emergency Committee for Israel props for achieving "moderate success ... in winning three out of the five House and Senate races where it endorsed candidates," he pointed out "that neither Iran nor Israel played a significant role in how they voted."

The biggest prize for the Emergency Committee was Pennsylvania, where the group, founded in July of this year, launched "a controversial attack ad in July 2010 targeting the track record of U.S. Senate candidate Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), which insinuated that he supported terrorists," the Institute for Policy Studies' Right Web pointed out in a profile of the group. Although Sestak won the Jewish vote, he lost the election to conservative Republican Pat Toomey.

The J Street website recently provided a 10-point Fact Sheet on the 2010 Jewish vote (See "J Street National Polling Results"):

Fact #1: American Jews stood strong in the face of a conservative tidal wave and remained a rock-solid progressive and liberal constituency. They identify 3-1 as Democrats and 66% voted Democratic.

Fact #2: American Jews have strongly unfavorable feelings toward the Tea Party (71 percent unfavorable), Glenn Beck (67), Sarah Palin (78) and the Republican Party (70).

Fact #3: 60% of American Jews have a favorable view of President Obama, despite constant reports to the contrary.

Fact #4: 71% of American Jews support the US playing an active role in resolving the conflict, even if it means publicly disagreeing with both the Israelis and the Arabs, despite two years of constant right-wing attacks on the President's policy in the Middle East.

Fact #5: When asked what two issues are most important in deciding how to vote, only 7 percent of Jewish voters choose Israel, placing the issues in a tie for eighth with the environment.

Fact #6: The issues that are important to them are the same as those that matter to other American voters: the economy (62 percent), health care (31 percent), the deficit and government spending (18 percent) and education (12 percent).

Fact #7: 71% of Pennsylvania's Jews voted for Senate Candidate Joe Sestak in his loss, despite months of Israel-related attacks with a heavy investment from right-wing groups like Emergency Committee for Israel and the Republican Jewish Coalition.

Fact #8: 86% of Pennsylvania Jewish voters indicated that they were either unaware of the criticism (70%) or that it made no difference in their vote even if they were aware of the criticism (16%).

Fact #9: 71% of American Jews said they would vote for Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky (D-IL-09), despite Republican Challenger Joel Pollak's repeated attacks over Israel and his effort to make J Street's support for her a campaign issue. Rep. Schakowsky handily won reelection.

Fact #10: 74% percent of Jewish voters reported that they did not hear or read about the criticism Schakowsky's positions on Israel or the criticism made no difference in their vote. 36% of those who were aware of Pollak's attacks said they made them more likely to vote for Schakowsky. 21% said it made them more likely to vote for Pollak. 40% said the attacks had no effect on their vote.

According to the Republican Jewish Coalition website, on election night pollster Arthur Finkelstein did exit polling for the RJC "to measure the Jewish vote in two key Senate races (IL and PA) and three bellwether House races (NY-4, CT-4, and NV-3)," and the RJC found that it "continue[d] to reinforce that the GOP is making inroads among Jewish voters". Contrary to J Street's polling, the RJC claimed that Jewish voters were moved to vote Republican by the Obama administration's policies toward Israel.

And, in head-to-head races, according to the RJC, where there was an RJC-supported candidate vs. a J Street-supported candidate, the RJC claimed that it prevailed a majority of the time.

"The takeaway from our polls," according to the RJC website, "is that in 2010, Republican candidates received a significantly higher percentage of the Jewish vote than Republicans did in the presidential year of 2008, certainly, but also significantly higher than the historic average level of support for Republicans in midterm elections, which was 24%. While the trend is not a straight line (2008 was certainly a dip in the chart across the board for all Republicans) the overall trend in Jewish voting is an increase in support for Republicans over time. The GOP continues to make inroads in the Jewish community and we look forward to that trend continuing in the years ahead."

There is no doubt that historically, Jewish voters have been extremely loyal to the Democratic Party. Whether the results of the midterms signal a trending toward Republicans as the Republican Jewish Coalition would like to believe, remains to be seen. However, once voters get used to the idea of switching parties, they may have a hard time turning back.

Berkowitz is a freelance writer and longtime observer of the conservative movement who documents the strategies, players, institutions, victories and defeats of the U.S. Right. In addition to BuzzFlash, his work -- which has been cited in a number of books -- has appeared in Alternet, Inter Press Service, The Nation, Religion Dispatches, Z Magazine, and numerous other online and print

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