National-led coalition ahead in post quake HorizonPoll

The current governing coalition would stay in power is an election were held tomorrow, according to a new HorizonPoll

The National led coalition would secure 46.2% of the party vote.

A Labour-Green-New Zealand First coalition would have 40.6%.

Some 8.2% remain undecided.

National’s vote has lifted 2.6% since the February 22 Christchurch earthquake, its highest since December, when it had 40.4% after the Pike River mining disaster.

Labour has 27%, down from 27.9%; Green 7.2% (down from 82%), and NZ First 6.4% (down from 6.7% in February and continuing a slow slide from a peak of 8.9% in December).

The Horizon Research poll, conducted between last weekend and Wednesday (March 12-15) and covering 1685 respondents, is weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, personal income, region and party vote 2008 to provide a representative sample of the New Zealand population. The maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level is +/- 2.4%.

Horizon is the only research company publishing polls including undecided voters. Its results take into account those who have a preference, the preferences of undecided voters, and include only those who are registered to vote and intend to vote.

The support lift National enjoyed after Pike River has occurred again following the Canterbury earthquake.

ACT, which had its party conference during two of the four days over which the poll was conducted, enjoyed a support boost from a low of 1.6% in December to 3.1%.

The Maori Party continues to struggle at 1.1%.

Only 30.4% of those who voted for it in 2008 remain loyal.

Some 36.4% of its 2008 voters have gone to Labour and 179% to the Green party.

National enjoys the highest 2008 voter loyalty rating of 81.3%

Loyalty to Labour is 68.1%, Greens 64.5%, NZ First 71.1%

Detailed results are available for download here: http://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/108/post-quake-poll-national-led-coaltion-ahead.

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