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Roy Morgan Poll: National level with Labour/Greens

National Party 44% (down 2.5%) now dead-level with Labour/ Greens 44% (up 1.5%)

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 894 electors from April 29 – May 12, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a fall in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 44% (down 2.5% since April 15-28, 2013). However, support for Key’s Coalition partners is slightly improved with the Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 1.5% (up 1%) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for Labour is 32% (up 0.5%); Greens are 12% (up 1%), New Zealand First 5% (up 0.5%), Mana Party 1% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (down 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that it would be too close to call, although an Opposition Labour/ Greens/ NZ First alliance would be slightly favoured.

Good news for the Government is that the latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 5.5pts to 126 with 56.5% (up 2%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30.5% (down 3.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (44%, down 2.5%) with a strong lead over the main Opposition Labour Party (32%, up 0.5%) but dead-level with a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (44%, up 1.5%). The improved result for the Opposition comes after the listing of Mighty River Power on the New Zealand Stock Exchange last Friday – which netted the Government $1.7 billion after selling 49% of the electricity generator. The Government has pledged to sell up to three more SOE (State Owned Enterprises) with Meridian Energy likely to be the next SOE to be privatised later in 2013.

“The fall in support for National comes after the scandal involving former National List MP Aaron Gilmore was resolved today with Gilmore’s resignation from Parliament. Gilmore had been in the media spotlight over the past fortnight due to his behavior at a dinner in Hanmer Springs late last month. Intense media criticism of his conduct since then has convinced the MP to vacate his seat in Parliament. Gilmore is set to be replaced by former broadcaster Claudette Hauiti.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 894 electors from April 29 – May 12, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample SizePercentage Estimate
40%-60%25% or 75%10% or 90%5% or 95%
1,000±3.2±2.7±1.9±1.4
1,500±2.5±2.2±1.5±1.1

ENDS

Original page with full-size charts and links to further data: Roy Morgan Research - National Party 44% (down 2.5%) now dead-level with Labour/ Greens 44% (up 1.5%)

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