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iPredict Election Update

iPredict Ltd

2014 New Zealand Election

Daily Update #10

Wednesday 17 September 2014




John Key’s National Party now has an 88% probability of leading the next government, most probably with the support of NZ First, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. There is a 75% probability NZ First will back National if it holds the balance of power, the Conservative Party is close to the 5% threshold, the Maori Party is closing in on Labour in Te Tai Hauauru and is expected to win Waiariki, and the Mana Party’s position has weakened in Te Tai Tokerau. Port Hills is now 50:50 between National and Labour.

However, for the first time, Mr Key is expected to step down as leader of the National Party by the end of 2015. Steven Joyce is favoured to succeed him, with Paula Bennett also in a strong position. David Cunliffe’s longevity as leader of the Labour Party has also worsened, with a 59% chance he will leave the job by the end of this year, to be succeeded by Grant Robertson.

iPredict accurately forecast today’s announcement by Statistics NZ of a current account deficit for the June quarter of 2.5% of GDP. It is forecasting Statistics NZ will tomorrow announce GDP growth in the June quarter of 0.7% of GDP.

Detailed Information:

• Expected turnout 78.6% (steady compared with yesterday)

• National expected to lead next government with 87.8% probability (up from 85.0% yesterday)

• Forecast party vote shares (major and minor parties, adjusted to sum to 100%):

o National: 44.1% (down from 45.2% yesterday)

o Labour: 25.1% (up from 24.8%)

o Green: 13.7% (up from 13.6%)

o NZ First: 6.2% (up from 5.9%)

o Conservatives: 4.8% (up from 4.2%)

o Internet-Mana: 2.7% (down from 3.0%)

o ACT: 1.8% (steady)

o Maori Party: 0.8% (steady)

o UnitedFuture: 0.5% (up from 0.4%)

o ALCP: 0.2% (steady)

o Civilian Party: 0.2% (up from 0.1%)

• Four small parties expected to win at least one electorate seat: ACT (89.4%, up from 88.8% yesterday), Maori Party (88.1%, up from 80.2%), UnitedFuture (83.2%, steady), and Mana (65.0%, down from 71.1%)

Marginal seats:

o Port Hills (50:50 between National’s Nuk Korako and Labour’s Ruth Dyson, compared with 53% for Korako yesterday)

o Te Tai Hauauru (60% for Labour’s Adrian Ruawhe, down from 79%)

o Palmerston North (60% for Labour’s Iain Lees-Galloway, up from 55%)

o Waimakariri (62% for National’s Matthew’s Doocey, steady)

o Hutt South (69% for Labour’s Trevor Mallard, down from 70%)

o Te Atatu (69% for Labour’s Phil Twyford, down from 71%)

o Te Tai Tokerau (71% for Mana’s Hone Harawira, steady)

o Tamaki Makaurau (75% for Labour’s Peeni Henare, down from 80%)

o Christchurch Central (77% for Labour’s Tony Milne, up from 75%)

o Ohariu (79% for UnitedFuture’s Peter Dunne, down from 86%)

• Parliament expected to be:

o National: 56 seats (down from 57 yesterday)

o Labour: 32 seats (up from 31)

o Green: 17 seats (steady)

o NZ First: 8 seats (up from 7)

o Internet-Mana: 3 seats (down from 4)

o ACT: 2 seats (steady)

o Maori Party: 1 seat (steady)

o UnitedFuture: 1 seat (steady)

• National/Act/UnitedFuture/Maori Party would have only 60 seats and could not form a government

• Labour/Green/NZ First/Internet-Mana/Maori Party would have 61 seats and could form a government

• National/NZ First would have 64 seats and could form a government

• If NZ First held the balance of power, it is expected to back National (75% probability, up from 64% yesterday) or sit on cross benches (2.8%, up from 0.8%)

David Cunliffe expected to depart as Labour leader by end of year (59% probability, up from 53% yesterday) and be replaced by Grant Robertson (65%, steady)

John Key expected to depart as National leader by the end of 2015 (65% probability, steady compared with yesterday). If Labour’s probability of forming the next government is subtracted from Mr Key’s probability of departing as National leader by the end of 2015, the probability of him doing so is 53%, the first time the market has forecast he will depart as leader by the end of next year

• Steven Joyce is favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises, with 34% probability (steady compared with yesterday) followed by Paula Bennett on 29% (up from 27% yesterday)

• As accurately forecast by iPredict, the current account deficit (June quarter) was 2.5% of GDP when announced by Statistics NZ today. iPredict forecasts that the current account deficit (September quarter) will be 3.5% of GDP

• GDP growth (June quarter) expected to be 0.7% when announced by Statistics NZ tomorrow (steady compared with yesterday)

• Unemployment expected to be 5.5% in September quarter (steady)

• Annual inflation to end of September quarter expected to be 1.4% (steady)

• No increase in Official Cash Rate expected on 30 October (95% probability, steady)

• Fiscal surplus for 2014/15 expected to be 0.23% of GDP (steady)

• 15% probability that evidence will emerge publicly, before 1 January 2015, contradicting John Key's statement that he first knew Kim Dotcom's name the day before the police raid on Mr Dotcom's mansion (down from 20% yesterday)

Notes: iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The daily political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each day. Today’s was taken at 10.20 am. Trading on iPredict to be suspended at 11.59 pm Friday 19 September and re-opened at 7.00 pm on Saturday 20 September


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