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NEW POLL: New Zealand First Surge, National Regain Lead

Good news for the Coalition as they extend their lead over the Centre-Left bloc this month, with National taking back the top spot from Labour in this month's Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll.

For the first time in a Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll, New Zealand are the third most supported party, leapfrogging both the Greens and ACT.

The poll, conducted between 02 and 06 July 2025, shows National gain 0.4 points to 33.9 percent, whilst Labour drop 3.2 points to 31.6 percent.

New Zealand First gain 3.7 percent to 9.8 percent, whilst ACT remain unchanged on 9.1 percent. The Greens gain 1.2 points to 9.4 percent, while Te Pāti Māori gain 0.2 points to 3.5 percent.

Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/pollnztu_20250710

For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.2 percent (-0.6 points), New Conservatives on 0.5 percent (-0.2 points), and Outdoors and Freedom is on 0.1 percent (-1.0 points).

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in June 2025, available here at www.taxpayers.org.nz/2025ju_polldatanztu

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The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 65 is up 3 seats from last month. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is down 3 seats to 57. On these numbers, the Centre-Right bloc could still form a Government.

National remains on 42 seats again this month, while Labour drops 5 seats to 39. New Zealand First gain 4 seats to 12, while the Greens gain 2 to 12. ACT drops 1 to 11, while Te Pāti Māori remain unchanged on 6 seats.

Cost of Living overtakes the Economy more generally as voters' top issue, rising 3.5 points to 21.6 percent. Economy drops 1.1 points to 19.1 percent and Health is in third place on 13.3 percent (+1.4 points).

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesman James Ross said:

“Cost of living is voters’ single biggest concern, and housing costs – particularly council rates – are the biggest contributor to that pressure.”

“With councils slapping ratepayers with, on average, another 8.71 percent rates hike, Shane Jones’ call to scrap regional councils is clearly cutting through. National Ministers backing rates capping appears to also be shoring up a boost in the centre-right bloc.”

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