Facing a sluggish economy, the Government Coalition sees another bad poll result, as they fall to neck-and-neck with the Centre-Left bloc in this month's Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll.

The poll, conducted between 03 and 05 August, shows Labour overtake National as the largest party, gaining 2.0 points to 33.6 percent. National drops 2.1 points to 31.8 percent.

The Greens gain 0.4 points to 9.8 percent, while ACT drops 0.5 points to 8.6 percent. New Zealand First drops 2.0 points to 7.8 percent, while Te Pāti Māori drops 0.3 points to 3.2 percent.

Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/augpoll2025_250808

For the minor parties, TOP is on 2.6 percent (+1.4 points), Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.1 percent (+1.0 points) and Vision NZ is on 0.4 percent (+0.4 points).

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in June 2025, available at www.taxpayers.org.nz/pollnztu_20250710

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 61 is down 4 seats from last month. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is up 4 seats to 61. On these numbers, neither the Centre-Left nor the Centre-Right bloc would have enough seats to form a Government, and there would be a hung Parliament.

Labour gains 4 seats to 43, while National drops 2 to 40. The Greens remain on 12, and ACT remain on 11. New Zealand First is down 2 to 10, while Te Pāti Māori remain unchanged on 6.

Cost of Living is voters' top issue at 24.4 percent (+2.8 points), closely followed by the Economy more generally at 20.7 percent (+1.6 points). Combined, these two issues are the most important for 45.1 percent of voters. Health is the next largest issue on 10.0 percent, followed by Employment on 6.0 percent.

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesman James Ross said:

"Why have the Government taken a beating in the polls? It's the economy, stupid. This month's results show it's not just Treasury giving the Government a dressing-down over their fiscal inaction."

"As part of this month's poll, the Taxpayers' Union also commissioned Curia to ask voters about the performance of the Government across a list of economic management issues. The results will be released later this week, and appear to indicate why the Government is losing so much support to the opposition parties."

"Cost of living and lack of growth are biting families in the back-pocket. Until the Government starts making the tough calls, they'll be clinging on to power by their fingertips."

SUMMARY STATEMENT

The full poll results can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/augpoll2025_250808

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday 03 August and Tuesday 05 August 2025. It has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

NOTES:

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 03 August and Tuesday 05 August 2025. The median response was collected on Monday 04 August 2025.

The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel.

A random selection of 10,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.

The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.

This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.

The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is an independent and membership-driven activist group, dedicated to being the voice for Kiwi taxpayers in the corridors of power. Its mission, lower taxes, less waste, more accountability, is supported by 200,000 subscribed members and supporters.

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