Mixed news for National in this month's Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll, with National gaining but the Coalition unable to form a Government.

The poll, conducted between 31 August and 02 September, shows Labour hold on to its spot as the largest party, gaining 0.2 points to 33.8 percent. National gained 1.3 points to 33.1 percent.

The Greens gain 0.9 points to 10.7 percent, while New Zealand First gains 0.3 points to 8.1 percent. ACT drop 1.9 points to 6.7 percent, while Te Pāti Māori gains 1.1 point to 4.3 percent.

Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/sept2025_nztucurpoll

For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.1 percent (-1.5 points), Outdoors and Freedom is on 0.8 percent (-0.3 points), Vision NZ is on 0.6 percent (+0.2 points), and New Conservatives are on 0.3 percent (+0.3 points).

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in August 2025, available at https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/augpoll2025_250808

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Left remains on 61 seats. The combined seats for the Centre-Right drops 1 seat from last month to 60. On these numbers, the Centre-Left bloc could form a Government.

Labour drops 1 seat from last month to 42, while National gains 2 to 42. The Greens gain 1 seat to 13, while New Zealand First remain on 10. ACT drops 3 seats to 8, while Te Pāti Māori remain unchanged on 6.

Cost of Living remains voters' top issues at 27.5 percent (+3.1 points), followed by the Economy more generally at 16.1 percent (-4.6 points). Health is the next largest at 11.1 percent (+1.1%), followed by Employment on 7.5 percent and Taxes on 4.7 percent.

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesman James Ross said:

"With Labour and National tied on 42 seats each, it's neck and neck as we close in on the final year before the next election:"

"This Government is still hanging on by its fingertips. They were elected to provide cost-of-living relief, and so far they've been unable to deliver."

"If National want to go into the next election with some breathing room, families need to stop feeling the squeeze. That means growth, jobs, and rates relief."

The full poll results can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/sept2025_nztucurpoll

Any media or other organisation that reports on this poll should include the following summary statement:

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday 31 August and Tuesday 02 September 2025. It has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

NOTES:

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 31 August and Tuesday 02 September 2025. The median response was collected on Monday 01 September 2025.

The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 700 by phone and 300 by online panel.

A random selection of 10,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.

The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.

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