The Government clings on to the lead, but Labour remain the largest party in the final Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll of 2025. Concern over the cost of living is at its highest level since May 2024.

The poll shows Labour drops 1.7 points to 31.6 percent, while National drops 0.2 points to 30.0 percent.

The Greens gain 1.6 points to 10.8 percent, while ACT gains 0.3 points to 8.9 percent. New Zealand First drops 1.0 points to 8.1 percent, while Te Pāti Māori drops 0.2 points to 3.1 percent.

Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/25dec_polltucur

For the minor parties, NZ Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.0 percent (-0.5 points), TOP is on 1.6 percent (+0.4 points), New Conservatives are on 1.0 percent (-0.2 points), and Vision NZ is on 0.3 percent (-0.1 points).

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in November 2025, available at www.taxpayers.org.nz/tucurpoll_nov2025

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right is down 1 seat to 61 seats. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is down 1 to 59. On these numbers, the Centre-Right bloc could form a Government.

Luxon's net favourability drops 3 points to -13 percent, while Chris Hipkins drops 5 points to -7 percent. In the major voting issues, Cost of Living has jumped 4.1 points to 32.6 percent. This is more than double the next closest issue, with the Economy on 14.8 percent (-2.8 points).

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers' Union Spokesman James Ross said:

"With Christmas around the corner, cost of living is front-and-centre in voters' minds again. A third of Kiwis now rate it as their most important issue, which is the greatest level of concern since May 2024."

"The number of people placing 'Policies' as their top issue is the highest it has been in nearly two years. A drop in Hipkins' preferred prime minister ranking, net favourability, and his party's vote share shows Labour's first election policy announcements may not have landed how Labour had hoped."

"Neither bloc will be entering election year feeling comfortable with these results."

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