The Centre-Left bloc could form a Government, but with the finest possible margin according to the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll.

This poll shows Labour gain 0.3 points to 34.4 percent, while National drops 2.9 points to 28.4 percent.

The Greens gain 0.2 points to 10.5 percent, while New Zealand First drops 0.8 points to 9.7 percent. ACT gains 0.8 points to 7.5 percent, while Te Pāti Māori gains 0.3 points to 3.2 percent.

Headline results and more information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at www.taxpayers.org.nz/tucur_mar2026poll

Minor parties were TOP on 1.9 percent (+0.5 points), NZ Outdoors and Freedom on 1.7 percent (+0.5 points), Vision NZ on 0.2 percent (-0.2 points), and New Conservatives on 0.8 percent (+0.7 points).

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll conducted in February 2026, available at www.taxpayers.org.nz/0226_polltu, which showed a hung Parliament.

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Left increases 1 to 61. The combined seats for the Centre-Right drops 1 to 59.

On these numbers, the Centre-Left bloc could form a Government.

Labour gains 1 seat to 44, while National drops 3 seats to 36. New Zealand First and the Greens both remain on 13 seats. ACT gains 2 seats to 10, while Te Pāti Māori remain on 4.

Polling on whether voters believed Labour or National were better managers of specific policies, National led on the Economy and Spending. Labour led on Health, Poverty, Inflation, Education, Safety, Housing, Environment, and not increasing taxes.

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers' Union Spokesman James Ross said:

"Yet again, this poll confirms that the election race is as close as it can be."

"The Government ought to be concerned with the issues Labour now lead on. It will shock National's election strategists that more voters are picking Labour as more trusted 'not to put up your taxes'."

SUMMARY STATEMENT

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday 01 February and Tuesday 03 February 2026. It has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

NOTES:

Given some of the incorrect commentary on this poll, please see the following twitter thread for an explanation of our process: https://x.com/TaxpayersUnion/status/2029639533185356199?s=20

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 01 March to Tuesday 03 March 2026. The median response was collected on Monday 02 March 2026.

The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 700 by phone and 300 by online panel.

A random selection of 10,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.

The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.

This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.

The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is an independent and membership-driven activist group, dedicated to being the voice for Kiwi taxpayers in the corridors of power. Its mission, lower taxes, less waste, more accountability, is supported by 200,000 subscribed members and supporters.

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