Cablegate: Media Reaction: President Chen Shui-Bian

VZCZCXYZ0018
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #4216 3632020
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 292020Z DEC 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3579
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6138
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 7367

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 004216

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN

Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their
coverage December 29 on the third session of trial hearings in the
Presidential Office Allowance for State Affairs case today and on
the record-high lottery draw Thursday evening, December 28. The
pro-status quo "China Times" ran a news story on page eight with the
headline "United States: Bian Had Better Not 'Create Surprises' in
His New Year's Day [Address] Any More." In terms of editorials and
commentaries, an editorial in the limited-circulation, conservative,
pro-unification, English-language "China Post" discussed the trial
in the Presidential Office Allowance for State Affairs case and
President Chen Shui-bian's future. The article said "To repay the
faithful backing given by 'deep green' followers, President Chen is
expected and obliged to tilt further, during the remainder of his
tenure, toward the ideology of Taiwan independence on such issues as
the proclamation of a 'second republic' with the adoption of a new
constitution." End summary.

"President Chen May Become More Radical"

The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post"
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (12/29):

"... Numerous instances have proven that Chen can rely on the
determined support of those 'deep green' people, although they are
in a minority, to weather one political storm after another. In
terms of political effectiveness, their numerical disadvantage has
been more than made up for by their aggressiveness and individual
combat capability. Look at the aggressive performance of the
lawyers for the defendants during the trial sessions [i.e. of the
Presidential Office Allowance for State Affairs case], who
repeatedly challenged the prosecutors and judges. Indeed, such a
phenomenon of defiance of the judicial authority is rarely seen in
any modern democracy. In doing so, the legal team hired by the
accused attempted to overpower the court psychologically.

"To repay the faithful backing given by 'deep green' followers,
President Chen is expected and obliged to tilt further, during the
remainder of his tenure, toward the ideology of Taiwan independence
on such issues as the proclamation of a 'second republic' with the
adoption of a new constitution. Many have suggested that once the
DPP nominates its presidential candidate for the 2008 elections, the
president will lose his effective control of party and government
affairs and become a lame-duck head of state, but this may not
necessarily be the case as long as he continues to be firmly
supported by the 'deep-green' voters, who form the backbone of the
DPP electorate. In other words, touted as the 'son of Taiwan,' Chen
will be able to control the DPP and the government apparatus through
exercising his influence on the 'deep-green' constituency. How
great this influence will be and for how long depends on how much he
has done to satisfy the demands of these people.

"Without having to worry about any more elections, Chen may be
tempted to run high risks in policy making, regardless of domestic
public opinion and reactions from the United States, for personal
benefit rather than in the national interest. Apparently, what
concerns Chen most now is whether he can serve out his second term
and whether he can avoid being prosecuted for corruption after he
steps down. The continued strong support of hardcore 'deep-green'
people will play a crucial role in President Chen's calculations.
He needs to redouble his efforts to capture the hearts of the ardent
advocates of the Taiwan independence movement for self-protection."

WANG

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