Cablegate: Scenesetter for Your Visit to Nepal

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 001032

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR DRL A/S BARRY LOWENKRON FROM THE AMBASSADOR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM KDEM PTER NP
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO NEPAL

1. Barry, I'm delighted that you are able to make it out to
Nepal at this crucial point in the country's history. You
will find a country that is teetering on the brink of
becoming either a showcase for democratic transformation or a
failed or totalitarian state threatening stability in the
region.

The Political Context
---------------------

2. A little over a year ago in April 2006, a People's
Movement (Jana Andolan, in Nepali), supported both by Nepal's
legitimate political parties and by its Maoist insurgents,
forced King Gyanendra to abandon his attempts at absolute
rule and surrender power to a reinstated Parliament. Since
then, negotiations between the parties and the Maoists have
resulted in a series of agreements ending the decade-long
insurgency, establishing an Interim Parliament with Maoist
participation and forming an Interim Government with several
Maoist ministers. Six-time Prime Minister and octogenarian
G.P. Koirala heads what is now an eight-party coalition
government. Its chief focus has been on setting out a
process supposedly leading to elections for a Constitutional
Assembly and to the absorption of the Maoists into the
democratic mainstream. Always fragile, this process
currently appears to be at risk.

Getting the Maoists Into the Mainstream
---------------------------------------

3. Perhaps the gravest threat to the peace process comes
from the Maoists. Despite a series of signed commitments,
they have not yet abandoned violence, intimidation, and
extortion. Indeed, both their actions and their leaders'
words suggest that their goal remains a monopoly on state
power and not power-sharing within a democratic framework.
To date, the government has facilitated Maoist obduracy by
refusing to enforce the law and crack down on Maoist abuses
for fear that doing so would force the erstwhile insurgents
to resume fighting. Instead, the government has made a
series of unilateral concessions to the Maoists, including
giving them the keys to UN-monitored containers where they
agreed to place their weapons and inviting them into an
Interim Government before they completed the process of arms
management.

4. Despite having violated their most fundamental
commitments, the Maoists obtained five Ministries in the
Interim Government, which was formed on April 1. The Maoists
were placed in charge of the Ministries of Information, Local
Development, Planning and Works, Forestry, and Women and
Children. The Maoists openly maintain that the speedy
holding of Constitutional Assembly elections is less
important than immediately removing the King and declaring
Nepal a "democratic republic." They have threatened to take
to the streets, if the Interim Government does not take
action soon against the King.

5. The Maoists have neither returned captured land to its
original owners nor stopped extortion throughout the
countryside, as they agreed to do before entering the Interim
Government. To date, the Maoists have placed over 30,000
supposed combatants into UN-supervised cantonments, but have
only placed 3,400 weapons into containers at those camps.
The majority of the alleged combatants appear to be recent
recruits and children. One positive development is that
verification of the identity of the combatants, which the
Maoists had been holding up, may begin the week of your
arrival. Recently, acts of violence by the Maoist Young
Communist League (YCL) and by Maoist splinter groups such as
the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha ("Democratic Terai
Liberation Front") (JTMM) have escalated in the countryside.
The Maoists are finding their political influence in large
parts of the country diminished by a flaring up of ethnic
tensions.

Addressing Marginalized Groups
------------------------------

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6. Expectations among Nepal's many marginalized groups were
raised by Maoist calls during the insurgency for regional
autonomy and ethnic rights, as well as by hopes that the
Constitutional Assembly process would lead to their having a
greater say in national affairs. These expectations went
largely unmet, however, as the parties and the Maoists cut a
deal behind closed doors in January on the Interim
Constitution that did almost nothing to address the
grievances of the marginalized groups. This failure to
address expectations has resulted in considerable
disappointment among these groups, who appear increasingly
inclined to use violence to advance their cause.

7. The first group to hit the streets to demand action was
the Madhesis, relatively recent immigrants from India who
live in Nepal's southern plains (the Terai) and account for
about one-third of Nepal's population. In February, the
Madhesis called a ten-day strike that closed the roads from
India, leading to severe shortages of petroleum and food in
Kathmandu and elsewhere. Clashes between the Madhesis and
the Maoists (who view the Madhesi movement as a threat to
Maoist standing in the Terai) and police (who contain very
few Madhesis in their ranks) have to date resulted in over
sixty deaths. There was a particularly bloody incident in
Gaur in March in which almost 30 people, all Maoists, lost
their lives. The Madhesis are demanding greater
representation in the Constitutional Assembly through a new
Constituency Delimitation Commission, as well as the
formation of a Commission of Inquiry into alleged police
brutality in the Terai. The new Minister for Peace and
Reconstruction is leading the government's talks.

8. Although the Prime Minister proposed various
constitutional reforms in February and the Interim
Constitution was in fact amended to spell out a federal
structure more explicitly, the government has yet to flesh
out how far it is prepared to go to make the political
process more inclusive. In addition to the Madhesis, the
Janjatis (ethnic Tibeto-Burmans who comprise about 35 percent
of Nepal's population) are demanding a greater share of
power. Other groups, including Nepal's dalits (or
untouchable castes - 15 percent of the population) and women
(51 percent of the population) are also beginning to demand a
voice. While these are precisely the sort of questions that
a Constitutional Assembly should discuss, the government's
unwillingness to engage in a roundtable dialogue with the
disaffected groups has allowed the situation to fester and
raised fears that the government and parties wish to keep
power in the hands of the political elite.

The Current Stalemate
---------------------

9. The Constitutional Assembly election was supposed to take
place in June. Although the Election Commission made it
clear to the government in April that a June poll would be
impossible, the parties have yet to reach agreement on a new
date. An election in late November (the generally preferred
date) will not be doable, however, if the government does not
come to terms with the Madhesis (whose MPs have shut down the
Parliament for a month) and other agitating groups, complete
the necessary electoral legislation, and restore law and
order. Six months is not a great deal of time. One debate
which is just getting started is how to deal with Nepal's
dark past. Under the peace agreements, a Truth and
Reconciliation Commission is supposed to be established.
Because of ongoing Maoist abuses, most Internally Displaced
Persons have still not been able to return to their homes.

Human Rights and Other Issues
-----------------------------

10. Nepal's human rights situation has improved since
parliament was restored in April 2006. Abuses by the Nepal
Army, the Armed Police Force (APF), and the Nepal Police
decreased substantially after the April cease-fire
declaration, although Maoist abuses, such as abduction,
extortion, and violence, have continued relatively unabated.
The Comprehensive Peace Agreement in November called for the

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Nepal Police and the APF to enforce law and order. That
said, the Home Minister, who remains the chief negotiator
with the Maoists, has in the past ordered the police not to
endanger the peace process by taking action against the
Maoists. The government took steps a year ago to restore
civil liberties that had been suspended before the People's
Movement and repealed the Press and Publications Act, which
had prohibited the publication of material that undermined
security, peace, or the institution of the monarchy. We
continue to urge the Government of Nepal to investigate past
abuses by the Nepal Army and the other security forces and to
call for Maoist accountability. The UN Office of the High
Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has its largest field
office in the world in Nepal and OHCHR and the National Human
Rights Commission (in spite of its lack of commissioners)
both actively report on the country's human rights situation.
Meanwhile, the Nepal Bar Association has launched its
DRL-funded program to increase civil society awareness of the
election process.

What You Can Do For Us
----------------------

11. I hope your trip will provide you a clear understanding
of the complexities of Nepal and of how we have been seeking
to promote U.S. interests here. As Embassy Kathmandu's most
senior visitor since then Under Secretary for Management
Henrietta Fore's visit in March, you will be asked for
Washington's latest views on Nepal's fast-paced developments.
In your conversations with Nepalis, you might therefore want
to concentrate on a few core themes:

-- The U.S. strongly supports Nepal's peace process, and we
will do what we can to help ensure its success. We want to
see a peaceful, prosperous, and democratic Nepal. We think
it is important that the parties reach agreement on, and
announce, an election date as soon as possible.

-- We thus want to see the Maoists come into the political
mainstream and endorse the values of democracy. To date,
however, Maoist actions and words cast doubt upon their
commitment to democracy. Until they support the rule of law
and abandon violence and intimidation, the Maoists cannot be
considered a mainstream political party. No legitimate party
practices politics through the barrel of a gun.

-- We have no position on the future of the monarchy. That
is for the people of Nepal to decide.

-- We hope that the political parties and government will
find ways to listen to the voices of all of Nepal's people
and bring them all into an inclusive, democratic society. At
the same time, nothing justifies the use of violence as a
political tool, including by groups that legitimately feel
marginalized within their society.

-- Coming to terms with Nepal's past is crucial to ensure
that the people of Nepal will not suffer again in the future.

I look forward to your arrival.
MORIARTY

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