Cablegate: Polls Show Dip in Lukashenko's Support

VZCZCXRO6552
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSK #0846/01 2771244
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041244Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6539
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0361
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1685
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000846

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR BO
SUBJECT: POLLS SHOW DIP IN LUKASHENKO'S SUPPORT

REF: A. MINSK 768

B. MINSK 458

Summary
-------

1. (SBU) According to independent nationwide polling data, public
support for Aleksandr Lukashenko continues to slip (ref A), while
support for the opposition holds steady. Public opinion on the
economy shows little change over the course of 2007. While
opposition to government cuts in social benefits exists, we are
clearly not at a point where that sentiment will be sufficient to
drive Belarusians to protest. End summary.

Luksashenko's Rating Continues to Slide
---------------------------------------

2. (SBU) Minsk's Independent Institute for Social, Economic and
Political Studies (IISEPS) conducted three nationwide public opinion
polls in January, May, and September 2007. Each survey had roughly
1500 respondents and a margin of error of three percentage points.
While many of the indices remained rather static, the popularity of
Aleksandr Lukashenko and general opinion on the state of affairs in
Belarus slipped.

3. (SBU) When asked, "If elections for President of Belarus were
held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?" Aleksandr Lukashenko's
rating fell six per cent, while support for Aleksandr Milinkevich
remained steady.

January '07 May '07 September '07

A. Lukashenko 50.9 48.0 44.9
A. Milinkevich 11.4 12.2 12.3
A. Kozulin 4.2 4.6 3.2
S. Gaydukevich 1.2 1.2 1.3
A. Lebedko

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